3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 6/28/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Patrick Beverley Over 3.5 Rebounds (-112)
We've seen Patrick Beverley tally 2, 4, 6, and 4 rebounds in this series thus far for an average of 4.0 boards per game -- despite playing 15.0, 26.3, 26.7, and 34.2 minutes, respectively, in those games.
That works out to 0.10 rebounds per minute, and numberFire's algorithm projects Beverley to play 33.8 minutes with an even better per-minute rebounding rate, resulting in 4.3 total rebounds. That's around 0.13 per minute. His full-season rate is actually 0.14, so a lot is getting us to like the over here, assuming the minutes stay elevated.
With a baseline of 4.3 rebounds, we should expect Beverley to go over his prop 63.5% of the time, suggesting over odds of -174.
Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Assists (-108)
Bridges is getting projected for 1.8 assists across 30.2 minutes, which is tight up against the prop, but not too many spots are much better with only one game to pick from.
Bridges actually rates out as 58.3% likely to get to at least 2 assists again tonight if we simulate this out a thousand times, using his projected baseline and usual deviation in assists.
Terance Mann Under 11.5 Points (-122)
Terance Mann went from Game 7 hero to low-volume efficiency in the Western Conference Finals.
Mann has scored 9, 8, 12, and 12 points (10.3 per game) against the Suns, but that's coming on just 6.5 attempts per game and a pristine 61.5% field goal percentage.
The shot volume is the primary concern for Mann to put up points in bunches.
numberFire projects Mann for just 10.0 points, comfortably shy of the 12 he needs for the over to cash.
Simulating out Mann's points likelihood, he is 59.1% likely to fall shy of a dozen points, suggesting the under odds should be around -144.