NBA Finals: 3 Player Prop Bets to Target for Game 2
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists (-134)
Chris Paul was outstanding in Game 1, and he did a lot of everything -- totaling 32 points and 9 dimes. He had a 25.9% usage rate in the win and recorded an assist rate of 56.3%. Our projections like him to rack up assists in Game 2, as well.
Paul has dished out at least nine assists in exactly half of his last 10 postseason games, and that's with his overall postseason numbers likely dinged a bit by his shoulder injury as well as his COVID absence. Paul logged slightly more than 37 minutes in the series opener, and the Phoenix Suns are implied for 112.75 points tonight.
We project CP3 for 9.6 assists in Game 2, and this is one of the bigger discrepancies of the night between our numbers and the posted prop lines.
P.J. Tucker Under 0.5 Made Threes (+210)
P.J. Tucker is playing huge minutes for the Milwaukee Bucks -- at least 33 in three straight -- and he usually spends a lot of time on offense standing in the corner. That makes it super scary to bet on him to not hit a single three tonight, but the +210 number sure is enticing.
While Tucker has made a trey in five consecutive games, he's attempted three or fewer triples in three of those five. He hoisted seven shots from beyond the arc in the final game of the Bucks' series versus the Atlanta Hawks, but Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that one. For the season, Tucker sports a meager 7.1% usage rate -- per NBAWowy -- when sharing the court with Giannis, who will almost surely play today after suiting up in Tuesday's Game 1.
Prior to Tucker's recent run of hitting three-balls, he had an eight-game stretch in which he went without a made trifecta in five of the eight games.
Our model projects Tucker for 0.9 made threes tonight. With the under priced at +210 -- compared to the -280 tag on the over -- that's where the value lies.
Mikal Bridges Over 10.5 Points (-128)
I won't regurgitate everything I said on Tuesday, but it's looking like Bridges' role lessening throughout the Los Angeles Clippers series may have been a matchup deal, because outside of the final three games of that series -- games in which he scored nine, five and six points -- Bridges has been a pretty steady scorer in these playoffs.
Prior to that three-game span, Bridges had netted at least 11 points in six of seven games. In the opener of the Finals, Bridges scored 14 points on 5-of-13 shooting. The best sign from that game might be his 20.9% usage rate, which was fourth on the Suns.
We have Bridges pegged to total 11.9 points in Game 2, so the over is the way to go once more.