3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 10/20/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Miles Bridges Under 15.5 Points (-110)
Miles Bridges easily could have a more significant role with the Charlotte Hornets to start the season given their offseason departures. That should allow him to bump up his per-game average from 12.7 points a year ago.
Our model says not quite so fast. At least with regards to his points prop.
The algorithm sees that Bridges is a bit overvalued at a 15.5-point over/under; it projects Bridges for 13.5 points over 28.6 minutes.
The Indiana Pacers wound up as a league-average defense a year ago by defensive rating, so it's hard to project a big bump to Bridges' per-minute expectation based on the matchup alone.
At his projected baseline of 13.5 points, my simulation model sees Bridges staying under 16 points at a 60.1% clip. That would suggest -151 odds on the under rather than the -110 we can get at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jalen Green Over 2.5 Assists (+102)
The NBA debut for Jalen Green comes with a plus-money opportunity on his assist number if we think he can get to three helpers across 30.2 projected minutes against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
While the Houston Rockets' guard should be able to pile up points in the NBA, he still managed 2.3 assists across 28.1 minutes in the preseason (a four-game sample).
Minnesota allowed the second-most assists per game last season, which can tell us about defensive strength but also tendencies allowed.
Our model anticipates a baseline projection of 3.3 assists over 30.2 minutes for the rookie.
The simulations would then expect him to be 66.8% likely to hit the over.
Richaun Holmes Over 7.5 Rebounds (-102)
The projection for Richaun Holmes' rebounding number sits at 8.6 tonight, making this a pretty easy recommendation overall.
Holmes and the Sacramento Kings face a Portland Trail Blazers team in a game with a slate-high 234.0-point over/under, and that can lead to plenty of chances to clean the glass.
Holmes, last season, managed a strong 0.28 rebound-per-minute rate, which would get him to 8.2 at the projected minutes load of 29.3 for tonight's contest.
Ultimately, Holmes is rating out as 62.5% likely to get to 8-plus rebounds in tonight's game. That would mean we could bet this one up even at -167 odds.
