NBA Betting Guide for Monday 11/29/21: Can the Mavericks Get Right at Home?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks
Over the past 10, the Mavericks are 5-5 with a +1.4 point differential, besting the Cavaliers' 4-6 record and +0.8 point differential.
However, across that 10-game sample, the Mavericks have had some bad defensive luck (and have faced some really good competition).
Based on the shot dispersion they have allowed, they should have given up 100.5 points per game if opponents shot at a league-average efficiency. That'd be an NBA-best defensive output.
Instead, opponents have scored 106.1 points per game against them, a differential of -5.6. That puts them 25th in defensive luck in that span.
The Cavs have had some slight luck in that department (102.9 expected points per game allowed versus 101.3 actual points per game allowed over their past 10) and could be due for slight regression.
In all, this sets up well for the Mavericks at home.
numberFire's model views their moneyline (-255) as a four-star recommendation, meaning we can go with a four-unit wager on Dallas to win outright. Their spread (-6.5) is a two-star recommendation.
Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs
Those win odds make their implied moneyline -114, but their actual moneyline sits all the way down at +140 (which suggests only 41.7% odds to win). That gap leads to an expected return of 27.7% and a two-star rating from numberFire's algorithm.
The even better play would be the Spurs +3.5 (a three-star recommendation). The model at numberFire views San Antonio as 63.5% likely to cover.
Using relevant samples with these two teams -- i.e. based on Bradley Beal's status and removing at low-leverage situations -- my model anticipates a full-on pick'em in this game. That makes it easy to side with the Spurs getting 3.5 points.
There are also sharp money indications on the Spurs: they have received 50% of the bets but 78% of the money on outright bets.
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz
Their record is 6-4 over their past 10 games despite a +9.0 point differential. Their spread-adjusted point differential in that span is actually just -1.7, so they haven't been playing over expectation recently -- despite the strong overall point differential.
The Portland Trail Blazers, in their past 10 games, aren't much better, though. They're 5-5 with a -1.8 point differential and a -2.7 spread-adjusted point differential.
Both sides are allowing opponents to surpass their implied team totals often lately (8 of 10 games for the Jazz and 6 of 10 for the Blazers), so defense is partly the issue.
Given the recent data, though, it's still hard to go against the Jazz in this game.
numberFire's model likes Utah to cover the 7.0-point spread 53.5% of the time, making that a one-star recommendation. But at -290, their moneyline is drawing three-star ratings, given the high probability of converting a win (79.5%, per the model).