NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 1/11/22: 3 More Underdogs Our Algorithm Likes
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards
The name of the game again tonight is going to be underdogs, same as it was yesterday. That's just where our model views a lot of the value for tonight's six-game slate.
That starts with the Oklahoma City Thunder (+9.0) against the Washington Wizards. numberFire's model gives the Thunder just a 28.2% chance to win this game outright -- which, by the way, makes their moneyline of +310 a one-star lean in its own right -- but a 59.1% chance to cover.
The spread leads to an expected return of 12.9% and a two-star recommendation (i.e. a two-unit wager suggestion).
Injecting relevant data (adjusted for injuries and leverage for the Thunder and Wizards) into my model, I'm seeing the anticipated spread as 4.0 points, thus making the Thunder 65.8% likely to cover tonight, as well.
Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors are clawing their way (haha) up the standings now with a sixth straight win to get them to 20-17 on the season.
The Phoenix Suns are 6-4 in their past 10 games with a +6.4 point differential yet a weaker -1.7 spread-adjusted mark.
In total, numberFire's model is recommending a lean on the Raptors +4.0 and their moneyline (+146) in this game at Scotiabank Arena.
Over the past three weeks, the Suns rank last in the NBA in shot quality (49.0%) generated while the Raptors are 20th (52.0%).
Accounting for leverage and key-player health for the Suns and Raptors (plus home-court advantage), my model sees the Raptors as 56.0% likely to cover, as well.
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies are hot right now and are 9-1 over their past 10 games. Their point differential is a league-best +10.6 in that span, and their spread-adjusted point differential (+10.5) is also an NBA-best.
The Golden State Warriors are 6-4 over their past 10 with a positive raw point differential (+1.7) but a negative spread-adjusted mark (-1.4).
In games with Stephen Curry but without Draymond Green, the Warriors are 1-1 with a medium-to-very-high-leverage net rating of just +1.5.
In games with Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are 17-12, and in non-garbage situations, their net rating is a +0.5.
With the advantage of homecourt, the Grizzlies -- per numberFire's model -- are getting two-star love on both the spread (+2.0) and moneyline (+110).
