NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 1/25/22: The Clippers Can Cover on the Road
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Los Angeles Clippers at Washington Wizards
The Los Angeles Clippers remain without Paul George, a split during which they are 9-13.
Their non-garbage-time net rating is a -5.4, which helps explain the record in games without George.
The Washington Wizards, however, are far from flawless themselves.
In their 38 games with Bradley Beal, they are 17-21. Their net rating in medium-to-very-high leverage situations is -4.6. That wouldn't indicate a 4.5-point spread that favors the Wizards, but that's what we get.
numberFire's model likes the Clippers to cover (61.4% of the time) and recommends a two-unit wager on that mark.
My model -- adjusting for the injury news -- anticipated a spread of 2.4 for the Wizards, so it also likes the Clippers to cover.
Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons
The Denver Nuggets are pretty heavily favored in this game (the spread is 7.5 points, and their moneyline is -295).
Though numberFire's model doesn't recommend a bet on the spread, it does like the Nuggets to win outright (74.9% of the time), good for a one-star lean on the heavy moneyline.
My model likes the Nuggets to cover and views them as an 8.6-point favorite against the Detroit Pistons in Detroit.
In their first matchup this season (which came on Sunday), the Nuggets won 117-111 while the Pistons drastically overperformed their shot quality (50.0% with an effective field goal percentage of 63.3%).
Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics
The model at numberFire is keen on the Boston Celtics tonight and views them as 81.6% likely to pick up their 25th win of the season over the Sacramento Kings.
Their moneyline (-400) implies 80.0% win odds, so there's some slight value there. The sheer likelihood of the win puts their moneyline into one-star territory. They're also rating out as a one-star play to cover the 8.5-point spread.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in numberFire's database, teams representing the Celtics are 22-3 (an 88.0% win percentage) and covered in 12 of them (48.0%).
Especially keep an eye on the status of De'Aaron Fox. In five games without him, the Kings are 1-4 with a non-garbage net rating of -8.5.
