NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 4/6/22: Can We Tail the Public's Picks Tonight?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons
Under (220.0) - 2 stars
Detroit Pistons Spread (+8.5) - 1 star
The late-season playoff surge and lengthy (lengthy) injury news makes betting a little trickier than we may like for these final few days of the regular season, but we can target over/unders with a bit of confidence that won't have as much to do with team effort level.
The under here is getting a two-star suggestion from numberFire's model, and it's rating out as 60.6% likely to stay under. That leads to a 15.7% expected return.
Since the All-Star break, Pistons games have a 55.0% under rate, the same rate for the Dallas Mavericks in that split.
They're doing it in different ways. Detroit is surpassing its implied total by an average of 5.4 points, but opponents have beat their implied total just 19.0% of the time against Detroit since the break.
For Dallas, they've surpassed their implied total at a 40.0% rate, falling short by an average of 3.0 points per game.
Detroit also has covered in 90.0% of their post-break games, doing so by an average of 6.5 points. Also, per NBA odds, the Pistons are receiving 57% of spread bets and 68% of spread money.
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks
Under (233.5) - 2 stars
Washington Wizards Spread (+10.5) - 3 stars
The Wizards remain without Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma but have been putting up somewhat of a fight in recent games.
In their past 10 without those two, the Wizards are 6-4 outright and 6-4 against the spread, as well. They have covered by an average of 5.0 points in their past 10 games.
The Atlanta Hawks are 7-3 in their past 10 games with a 2.2-point spread-adjusted differential.
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, 61% of spread bets are on the Wizards, so the public is also in agreement with our model's pick for the Wizards to cover the 10.5-point spread tonight.
Again, personally, I like late-season over/unders primarily, and the under is looking like the right call here. Our model projects a total of 230.0 points tonight, a full 3.5 points shy of the total in this spot.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz
Over (220.5) - 1 star
Oklahoma City Thunder Spread (+17.0) - 1 star
The Utah Jazz are looking pretty set into the 5 seed in the Western Conference but still have a reason to win, which they should do 90.5% of the time, per our model.
That doesn't leave a lot of room for the Thunder to make some noise with a win, though our model does like OKC to keep it within 17 points.
Our algorithm likes the Thunder to cover with a 57.1% probability, good for a 9.0% expected return. The Thunder are 8-2 against the spread in their past 10 games and 13-8 against the spread since the break.
Also, 78% of spread money is on the Thunder.
The over (220.5) is a one-star lean, as well. Since 2017, April games have a 51.9% over rate. My model likes a 224.6-point total.
