NBA Betting Guide for Monday 4/25/22: Can the Nets and Raptors Fend Off Elimination?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets
Boston Celtics Spread (+1.0) - 2 stars
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-102) - 2 stars
With the Brooklyn Nets' backs up against the wall, they are being treated as 1.0-point home favorites against the Celtics, who are up 3-0 in this first-round series.
Via NBA odds, we're seeing 52% of the spread bets on the Nets with 51% of the money, so it's a pretty even split based on the public perception.
numberFire's model is taking a slight stand on this one, favoring the Celtics to cover (59.0%) and to win (56.7%). Both are treated as two-star plays, recommending two-unit wagers on those outcomes.
So far in the series, the Celtics are 2-1 against the spread, covering by an average of 3.5 points.
In the playoffs thus far, home teams favored by 0.5 to 1.5 are 0-4, losing by an average of 8.5 points. We could definitely see the Nets play above expectation given the circumstances, but the data heavily sides with Boston in this matchup.
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors Spread (+7.5) - 2 stars
Toronto Raptors Moneyline (+250) - 2 stars
Though the model is projecting this series to end, as well (the Philadelphia 76ers are 64.2% likely to win), it does put stock in the Raptors to cover the 7.5-point spread even with Fred VanVleet questionable with his hip flexor strain.
Even without VanVleet on the floor since the All-Star break, the Raptors have a non-garbage-time net rating of +2.0.
Our algorithm anticipates a 61.5% chance that Toronto covers, leading to an expected return of 17.4%. In the 25 most comparable games to this one, historically, in our database, teams representing the Raptors have covered at a 56.0% clip.
Since 2016, road underdogs of 7.0 to 8.0 points have a 52.2% cover rate, as well.
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Utah Jazz Spread (+3.5) - 2 stars
Utah Jazz Moneyline (+134) - 2 stars
Under (213.0) - 1 star
The model here is going against the public in terms of spread recommendations.
FanDuel Sportsbook shows that 67% of the spread bets and 72% of the spread money is on Dallas to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite. Conversely, numberFire's model likes Utah to cover with a 60.0% likelihood (thus leading to a 14.5% expected return).
Teams repping the Jazz in our top comps have a 60.0% cover rate (same as our projected rate).
Also, there's a one-star lean on the under (213.0). It's 56.3% likely to hit, based on our sims, and 68.0% of the top comp games have hit the under. And since 2016, playoff games have a 47.7% over rate, so siding with the under is always an easy justification in the playoffs.