NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 4/25/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Seth Curry Over 11.5 Points (-104)
Seth Curry -- like pretty much everyone on the Brooklyn Nets other than Bruce Brown Jr. -- is having a disappointing series through three games, but I like him to get to the over on his points prop tonight in Game 4.
So far in this series against the Boston Celtics, Curry has dropped in 9, 16 and 10 points, and he's taken more than eight shots in just one game -- a 6-of-11 shooting performance, including 4 of 6 from deep, in the 16-point game.
His 14.8% usage rate in the series is just the seventh-highest clip on the Nets. When sharing the court with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant this season, Curry owned a 16.4% usage rate, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ -- not a big jump from 14.8%, but the small margins matter when prop lines are as tight as they are in the postseason.
So while Boston's D deserves credit for funneling shots to guys like Brown (18.4% usage) and Goran Dragic (23.6%), there's likely a little small-sample noise at play in Curry's lowly usage through three games.
He is, however, seeing big minutes, logging 34, 30 and 29 in the three clashes. Over the last 15 games of the regular season, the Celtics permitted a three-point attempt rate of 41.3%, the 11th-highest in that span, which should benefit Curry.
We project Curry to take 10.0 shots and finish with 13.0 points, making the over an appealing prop.
Royce O'Neale Over 4.5 Rebounds (-122)
Royce O'Neale has played at least 30 minutes in each of the four games of this series, including 37 in Game 2. He's grabbed at least six rebounds in three of the four games, going for nine boards in the aforementioned Game 2.
Getting O'Neale's rebounds prop at 4.5 is really enticing. Our algorithm projects him to total 5.8 rebounds.