NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 11/10/22: Two Overs and an Underdog to Back
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +3.5 (-110)
The Wizards don't have to snap a three-game home losing streak to cover, but it'd be nice if they did. Washington will be without Bradley Beal, Delon Wright, and others. In 11 games with Kristaps Porzingis active but Beal and Wright off the court, the Wizards have a respectable -1.9 net rating while playing better-than-average defense (excluding garbage time).
The Dallas Mavericks are without Christian Wood. With Luka Doncic but without Wood, the Mavericks' net rating is -0.3. The only real difference between those two splits is that the Mavericks' offense has been a tick better than Washington's.
Accounting for homecourt advantage, then, the Wizards look pretty solid.
While the Wizards have had some home issues, the Mavericks haven't traveled well. They're 1-3 on the road with a -1.8 point differential and have played, on average, 5.0 points worse than the spread suggested they should've.
Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks
Over 222.5 (-110)
The 5-6 Philadelphia 76ers (3-2 on the road) are without James Harden for tonight's matchup against a 7-4 Atlanta Hawks (4-2 at home).
Without Harden but with Joel Embiid, the 76ers have been solid. They have a -0.8 net rating with a 113.0 offensive rating. That means their offensive rating and defensive rating are both above the NBA average and thus good for an over.
The Hawks are mostly healthy, and their non-garbage-time offensive rating in games with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray is 115.5.
My model anticipates a total of 227.0 points.
The 76ers have a 45.5% over rate through 11 games; the Hawks have gone over in 63.6% of their games. Notably, each team has allowed opponents to go over implied totals in 7 of 11 games.
Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans
Over 225.0 (-110)
Questionable tags plague the other two games on the slate. In this one, Jusuf Nurkic is questionable for the Portland Trail Blazers after sitting out last night. The New Orleans Pelicans; Larry Nance Jr. is questionable, as well, and didn't play last night, either.
Accounting for these injuries, my preferred access here is the over. My model anticipates a total of 229.4 points. Once accounting for these injuries, we see both better-than-average offenses and worse-than-average defenses for each side.
New Orleans has surpassed their implied total in 7 of 11 games (63.6%), and Portland has done it in 6 of 11 (54.5%).
The rest quotient is something we can address, too, as both teams are on no rest.
Since 2016, matchups with two teams playing on no rest are 191-179-5 to the over (51.6%). In the past two seasons with better injury management and fewer back-to-backs and before December, these games are 16-11 on the over.
