NBA Betting Guide for Friday 11/18/22: Two Overs and an Underdog
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls
Over 222.0 (-110)
Key injuries for the visiting Orlando Magic include Paolo Banchero and Cole Anthony, both of whom are out. For the Chicago Bulls, they're listing Patrick Williams as questionable while Lonzo Ball remains out.
Accounting for that (and other) news, we're basically seeing two average offenses and defenses go to work against one another. The Magic have an offensive rating of 109.2 in this sample, and the Bulls' number is 112.6.
What's leading to an over recommendation then? Expected pace is a big part of it. Both sides have averaged over 100.0 possessions per 48 minutes when dealing without important guards, and the Magic are actually averaging 102.0.
My model is anticipating a total of 227.5 here, and numberFire's algorithm likes the over, too.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder +6.0 (-110)
The big note here is the status of Desmond Bane, who is out.
The Memphis Grizzlies, without Bane but in games with Ja Morant, have a pretty dreadful net rating of -11.2 over 450 possessions. Though that number likely won't stay so large forever, that's a healthy number of possessions we're dealing with.
Unsurprisingly, their offensive rating falls to just 107.8 when Bane isn't on the court for relevant possessions. Perhaps more surprisingly, their defensive rating is up to 118.9. That's a bit outside the bounds of even the worst defensive ratings, and I adjust for outliers like that.
But the fact is that the Thunder are kind of fun and kind of decent. Their net rating when they have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey active but are without Tre Mann and Darius Bazley is still a -3.0, and their offensive rating is 114.1.
They should be able to take advantage of the defensive issues here.
New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors
Over 234.0 (-110)
The Big Four for the Golden State Warriors are healthy, and the New York Knicks are likely still without shot-blocker Mitchell Robinson (doubtful).
These teams are basically identical when accounting for all of this news.
The Warriors have a 116.4 offensive rating and a 114.5 defensive rating. The Knicks' marks are 116.7 and 115.6, respectively. My model does, then, show value on the Knicks' spread (+7.0).
But the preference is on the over. Notably, these teams have allowed opponents to go over their implied team totals in at least half of their games and by a combined average of 5.8 points. They both can score -- but both can let up points, too.
