NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 11/30/22: Trusting the Betting Trends in the Jazz-Clippers Game
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz -7.0 (-110)
Paul George and Luke Kennard aren't traveling with the Los Angeles Clippers for their two-game road trip, meaning they're out. Kawhi Leonard didn't play against the Portland Trail Blazers last night, either.
Adjusting each team's data for relevant injuries, the Clippers hold a -4.4 net rating with a weak 108.6 offensive rating. The Jazz are just a -0.8 by net rating but have a 115.4 offensive rating.
Accounting for all of this injury information, home court advantage, and rest, my model actually views the spread as 10.0 rather than 7.0. numberFire's model also likes Utah -7.0 as a one-star play.
While just 44% of the spread bets are on the Jazz to cover, that comes with 60% of the spread money.
Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings
Under 241.0 (-110)
Indiana Pacers +4.5 (-110)
Here's a game without a lot of huge injury news.
The Pacers are 12-8 overall and 5-4 on the road. Overall, they've outperformed their spread by an average of 3.4 points. Adjusted for opponents, their point differential is +4.1.
The Sacramento Kings are 10-9 on the year and 6-4 at home. Against the spread, their overall point differential is +2.6, and their opponent-adjusted point differential is +2.2.
That puts the advantage in the Pacers' favor in both categories.
Yes, the Kings have home court advantage, but overall, these two teams are pretty similar. Taking the points with the Pacers tracks.
The total itself is a bit high, too. My model projects a total of 234.5.
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers
Under 224.0 (-110)
The Los Angeles Lakers have gotten back on track a bit in recent games. They are 5-2 in their past seven games. However, three of those wins were against the San Antonio Spurs, and they also beat the Brooklyn Nets and the Detroit Pistons.
The spread (Lakers -5.5) is pretty efficient (though numberFire's model likes it as a one-star play), and the better value here is the under.
The Blazers, without Lillard, hold an okay 111.9 offensive rating, but the Lakers' relevant number is 105.2.
My model projects a total of only 217.0 points for this matchup. numberFire's algorithm views the under as a one-star play, as well.