NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 12/1/22: Can Dallas Figure It Out on the Road Against the Pistons?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-330)
Over 221.5 (-110)
In the night's only game, we have the Mavericks traveling to play the Detroit Pistons.
Dallas is 10-10 on the year but just 1-7 on the road with a point differential of -5.3 in away games. Against the spread, Dallas is 2-6 in those eight games and fails to cover by an average of 6.3 points.
Detroit is only 5-18 but has played 13 road games already (with a 2-11 record in them). That means they're a decent 3-7 in 10 home games, but that's a bit misleading.
They have a league-worst -8.2 opponent-adjusted point differential at home. Their home wins came in the season opener against the Orlando Magic, on October 30th against the Golden State Warriors (who have not traveled well at all this season), and on November 7th against the Oklahoma City Thunder. None of those are overly impressive.
Accounting for those injuries, my model thinks that the total here should be 225.5 rather than 221.5. The Pistons' defensive rating is a dreadful 119.5 in games with Bagely but with Cunningham off the floor.
That should boost up the Mavericks' offensive efficiency pretty substantially (from an already good 115.2 offensive rating with Luka Doncic active).
The home/road splits, while interesting, shouldn't matter in this matchup given how lopsided it is. Dallas should win, and they should do so on the back of their offense.
I also see value in the Pistons scoring over 106.5 (-115), as I'm playing the angle of the over -- based on the relevant splits for each side.