FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 12/28/22

Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer daily, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

This eight-game slate isn't massive, but its injury report is.

The Lakers played last night in Orlando, so now on the second leg of the back-to-back in Miami, LeBron James (ankle) is a question mark at this stage. Both Jimmy Butler (knee) and Bam Adebayo (shoulder) are listed as questionable for the home squad.

Domantas Sabonis (broken thumb) ended up not playing on Tuesday. I'd presume he's out for the immediate rematch with Denver tonight, but you never know with this sport. The Nuggets remained in Sacramento overnight, and they've got injury concerns of their own with Aaron Gordon (shoulder) and Bruce Brown Jr. (ankle) having both not finished last night's contest. Gordon was a late scratch.

Add Trae Young (calf) to an injury report we knew would have Clint Capela (calf) and De'Andre Hunter (ankle) after both missed last night's game.

Neither Phoenix nor Washington have an official injury report since both played last night, but Devin Booker (groin) is already out. We'll wait for word on Landry Shamet (Achilles) for the Suns, too. Kristaps Porzingis (knee) and Bradley Beal (hamstring) also spent time in the Wizards' locker room last night, so I wouldn't be stunned if they sat today.

Both Klay Thompson (rest) and Andrew Wiggins (illness) will likely sit for Golden State on Wednesday. Kelly Olynyk (ankle) remains a question mark for the visiting Jazz.

The Bucks will visit the Bulls without Khris Middleton (knee) once more, and we'll see if Chicago gets back any of Alex Caruso (concussion), Derrick Jones Jr. (ankle), or Javonte Green (knee).

Zion Williamson (COVID-19 protocols) will play on Wednesday, but Herbert Jones is questionable due to the same COVID-19 protocols. Kyle Anderson (back) is questionable for the Timberwolves on the other side.

Finally, Marvin Bagley III (illness) will sit for the Pistons in Orlando.

Guards

With Zion's return and Trae Young's potential absence, guard starts a bit lower today than normal.

To me, that's with Dejounte Murray ($8,400), who in all situations nearly eclipses his needed production rate at that salary at 1.11 FanDuel points per minute. With Trae off the floor, that only bumps to 1.18. For popularity purposes, I hope Trae plays, but Murray is at a great salary either way.

De'Aaron Fox ($8,500) also gets a do-over tonight in Sactown. He posted 26 points last night but with just one measly rebound and four assists. With more peripheral stats, he's in an excellent spot against a Denver team that allows the second-most FanDuel points per game to point guards.

It's worth adding Jordan Poole ($7,800) to this loaded mid-range, too. Poole's gaudy usage rate (36.3%) with Klay, Wiggins, and Stephen Curry off the floor hasn't yet amounted to top-shelf production (0.99 FanDuel points per minute), but if he drops 40 points, the rest of the stats compiled won't matter.

Kyrie Irving ($8,600) and Chris Paul ($8,100) also project well in that same range, so we'll have a lot of tournament options for similar styles of builds.

In terms of value, the Suns should have some in Booker's stead, but it's tough to project from where. Damion Lee ($4,400) was benched for Duane Washington Jr. ($3,700) last night, and it's truly a dart which one prevails tonight. More reliable point-per-dollar value includes D'Angelo Russell ($7,100), Kyle Lowry ($6,400), Jaden Ivey ($5,900), and Malik Monk ($4,600).

Wings

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700) can easily dud in the wrong spots due to blowouts or pace, but with Giannis just a 4.0-point road favorite in a pace-up spot against the Bulls, I do feel inclined to buy low on his Christmas stinker against Boston.

That's especially true since LeBron is -- in my opinion -- unlikely to play, and Kevin Durant hasn't hit 50 FanDuel points in four of his past five as the Nets have gotten healthier. I'd rather roster Ben Simmons ($7,200), Lonnie Walker ($5,800), or Royce O'Neale ($4,900) from those two clubs.

Of course, if Giannis' game stays close, Chicago will have scored some points. At salary, DeMar DeRozan ($8,600) is a bit easier to stomach today than the scoring-centric Zach LaVine. LaVine's elevated salary ($7,500) is no bargain.

We'll watch injuries closely here, too. Both Kyle Kuzma ($8,100) and Tyler Herro ($7,900) could leap to top-shelf plays if any of the stars ahead of them sit.

In Sacramento, Michael Porter Jr. ($5,800) knocked the rust off with 30 points last night, and Harrison Barnes ($5,700) exceeded salary-based value, too. Both can be run back given the injury situations there. It's also worth noting that both Keegan Murray ($5,800) and Vlatko Cancar ($3,700) eclipsed 30 minutes due to the injuries, too.

We'll be waiting and watching for today's best value options in this area, but Caleb Martin ($4,700) and Pat Connaughton ($3,900) are already lit green in full-time roles. I'd add that Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,200), Donte DiVincenzo ($6,100), AJ Griffin ($4,800), and Wenyen Gabriel ($4,100) could join this list with the right injury breaks.

Bigs

Nikola Jokic ($12,300) should go back to afterthought status in daily fantasy after last night's clunker, but that's when he's his most dangerous to fade.

Oddly, Jokic sees a production bump (+3.62 FanDuel points per 36 minutes) during floor situations without Gordon and Brown. We'll see if that holds, though, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter now fully back.

Behind "The Joker," I'll be malleable to today's news. I'm not expecting Kristaps Porzingis ($9,000) to play, but as mentioned yesterday, his salary is friendly for his top role with all Wizards healthy. If Bam Adebayo ($8,800) plays and Butler sits, he's the key priority overall for me against the Lakers, who cede the third-most FanDuel points to centers.

Deandre Ayton ($8,000) was a complete dud last night, and I'm afraid it was because the Suns added Jock Landale ($4,000) to the lineup. The second center took away valuable boards from Ayton, but on paper, the former top pick is still a great play without Booker. He produces 45.0 FanDuel points per 36 in that floor condition overall.

Ayton and Thomas Bryant ($5,700), who is numberFire's top per-dollar projection at center, are the primary opportunity costs of a Jokic build. I'm not interested in the Onyeka Okongwu roulette wheel of minutes at a not-so-small $5,900 tag.

At power forward, John Collins ($6,300) should be a decent bet if Capela and Hunter sit once more. He dropped 40.3 FanDuel points in their stead last night.

Others I'd add to a list of value options at power forward include Bobby Portis ($5,500), Isaiah Stewart ($5,500), and Kevon Looney ($5,500). Looney would be stellar if Draymond Green sits the second leg of the Dubs' back-to-back.