3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 1/20/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Terance Mann Under 0.5 Threes (+160)
This one is a bit of a dart throw, which is why it's priced at +160, but hear me out.
The Los Angeles Clippers are facing the San Antonio Spurs. San Antonio is doing a nice job limiting three-point shots, giving up a three-point attempt rate of just 35.3%, the second-lowest. The small-forward position is getting off just 7.0 three-point tries per night versus the Spurs, which is tied for the third-fewest.
Terance Mann has gone without a three in 6 of his past 13 games, and the Clips' two stars -- Kawhi Leonard and Paul George -- have been in and out of the lineup in that time. They're both expected to play today, and with those two on the floor, Mann owns a meager 14.9% usage rate, per CourtIQ.
We project Mann to make 1.1 threes on 3.1 attempts. That's obviously over this prop, but I think there's a better chance this under hits than what the +160 price implies. There's some value here.
Royce O'Neale Over 4.5 Rebounds (+104)
Royce O'Neale has five total boards across his past two games. I still really like this over.
Prior to the past two, O'Neale had four straight games of five-plus rebounds, including outings of seven and 10 boards. He's averaging 4.9 rebounds per night for the season.
On top of that, his rebounding output rises sans Kevin Durant, who is still out. With KD off the floor, O'Neale snags 5.68 rebounds per 36 minutes, an increase of 0.58 from his usual average.
Our model has O'Neale playing 37.4 minutes and pulling down 5.7 rebounds tonight at the Utah Jazz.
Bennedict Mathurin Over 16.5 Points (-112)
With Tyrese Haliburton out, Bennedict Mathurin has seen his usage go up.
Over the last four games, all of which Haliburton has missed, Mathurin holds a team-best 24.9% usage rate. While that has led to just one game of 17-plus points in that span, his scoring outputs have been bogged down by bad shooting, which is bound to improve.
He's shooting only 38.7% from the field in the three games in that time in which he failed to surpass 16.5 points. He's also taken just 4.0 free throws per night in those games. For the season, he's hitting 42.2% of his shots and attempting 6.0 freebies per game.
Mathurin is due to shoot better -- and take more free throws -- and tonight's matchup versus the Denver Nuggets can help. Denver is allowing two-guards to net 23.7 points per game, the eighth-most, and they may be without the interior D of Nikola Jokic, who was downgraded to questionable.
Our algorithm projects Mathurin to score 17.4 points on Friday.
