NBA Betting Guide for Monday 1/30/23: Backing 3 Home Teams to Cover the Spread
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs +6.5 (-110)
All things considered, the injury list in this game isn't too bad, yet we're seeing the Spurs listed as 6.5-point underdogs against the Washington Wizards, who will have both Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis.
In games with both, Washington has an 11-13 record and a non-garbage-time net rating of -1.4. Their record against the spread is 11-12-1, as well.
The Spurs -- in games without Devin Vassell but with Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl -- are only 5-12 with a -7.3 net rating and an against-the-spread record of 9-8-0. Not great. Not awful.
Across 10 home games in that sample, they've been better -- including a 7-3-0 home record against the spread and a 5-5 record outright.
Injecting relevant data into my model, the expected spread is coming out at Spurs +4.4, so that's where I'll be landing.
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 (-110)
It's pretty telling that the spread is "only" 4.5 points in the Golden State Warriors' favor for a road game with their Big Four healthy and the Thunder missing some depth pieces.
We know by now that the Warriors don't particularly travel well. They're just 6-18 overall on the road with a 33.3% cover rate and a -5.6 opponent-adjusted net rating. On the road, their scoring falls to 116.3 points per game; at home, it's 119.7. Their defense gets worse, too: 113.2 points per game allowed at home versus 122.9 on the road.
As for the Thunder, they're a good home team overall: a 15-10 record, a 64.0% cover rate, and a +5.1 opponent-adjusted net rating.
In games with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey but with Lug Dort, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and Aleksej Pokusevski off the floor, their net rating is a +2.3.
The Warriors' net rating even with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green active is only +4.3 overall. In road games in this split, they're just 3-9-0 against the spread.
Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns -1.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-126)
Here's another one where the injury report feels a bit lopsided but that still favors the home side overall.
The visiting Toronto Raptors (8-16 on the road) are without OG Anunoby, who is a pretty key piece to the Raptors' performance. With him off the floor (but in games with Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Scottie Barnes), their net rating is a -4.8 over 1,144 possessions.
Of course, the Suns are without Devin Booker (and Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne), too. Their relevant net rating for this matchup (i.e. with those three off the floor but in games with Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton) is only -3.6.
It's not that they're a great team without Booker. It's that they're still a bit better than the Raptors and that they're at home that should help get them a win and a cover.
