NBA Betting Guide for Friday 2/3/23: Will Utah Win at Home Again?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.
Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-460)
Over 222.0 (-110)
The Celtics are stalwarts at home this season. They're 20-6 overall with a league-best +11.7 opponent-adjusted point differential. Notably (because the over is the recommendation here), games in Boston have gone over by an average of 8.2 points and at a 65.4% rate.
The Phoenix Suns are without Devin Booker and a few other rotational pieces.
In games with Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges but without Booker, Landry Shamet, and Cameron Payne on the floor, the Suns have a -5.2 net rating and an average 114.9 offensive rating. That means a 120.1 defensive rating on the back end, too.
Boston is an 81.6% favorite in numberFire's model. My model has their odds at 85.1% once accounting for injuries.
My model also thinks this game scores 228.2 points.
Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets
Under 225.0 (-110)
The injury report for the Houston Rockets is pretty long, and it most notably includes both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green as out with Jabari Smith as questionable.
Their offensive rating without all three on the floor (and without garbage-time possessions) is a horrendous 104.6. However, their defensive rating is an under-friendly 107.6 (across a 655-possession sample).
The Toronto Raptors are sans OG Anunoby, and with him off the floor, Toronto's offensive rating is a tick above average at 115.9.
Combined with two slower in-split paces and just a lack of overall offensive firepower, the under is standing out.
Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz Moneyline (-116)
Utah Jazz -1.0 (-110)
For an early February game, this one doesn't really have a huge injury report, which is nice. But we still want to account for games and situations when the key players in tonight's game were actually active.
With that in mind, we see that the Atlanta Hawks' net rating is only +0.4 with league-average marks in both offensive and defensive rating.
The Jazz are a +2.2 with a pretty good 118.7 offensive rating (around four percent higher than the NBA average).
Utah has won two straight home games and now plays its third straight home game. At home, they Utah holds an 18-9 home record with a 58.3% cover rate and a +6.0 opponent-adjusted net rating.
The Hawks, on the road, are just 13-15 with a 44.4% cover rate and a -1.1 adjusted net rating.
numberFire's model likes the Jazz moneyline as a four-star play out of five, and their spread is a two-star suggestion.