NCAA Bracketology Update: Time Is Running Out
One of the best parts of March Madness is the build up, the road to get in. Even if some schools get slotted into an ill-fated 16 seed, an NCAA Tournament berth can be historic for programs with a lacking track record.
Of course, some schools -- power conference teams and teams firmly in the AP Top 25 -- are pretty much shoo-ins to lock up a spot even before guaranteed bids are earned or conference tournaments start.
Which teams never ranked in the AP top 25 this season are looking likely to get a chance to dance, based on our bracketology projections?
These are the schools without an AP rank during the season with at least a 50% chance shot to make the tournament, per our algorithm. nERD indicates expected point differential compared to an average team.
| nF Rank | School | nERD | Proj. Record |
Tournament Odds |
Proj. Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Dayton Flyers | 11.98 | 23.7-5.3 | 96.23% | 8 |
| 59 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 8.59 | 25.9-4.1 | 94.20% | 10 |
| 84 | Monmouth Hawks | 5.96 | 26.8-5.2 | 93.29% | 11 |
| 52 | Illinois State Redbirds | 9.61 | 24.7-5.3 | 92.65% | 10 |
| 47 | Virginia Commonwealth Rams | 10.13 | 23.7-7.3 | 92.19% | 9 |
| 63 | North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks | 8.43 | 24.0-5.0 | 92.19% | 9 |
| 72 | Texas-Arlington Mavericks | 6.99 | 22.6-6.4 | 91.47% | 11 |
| 75 | Vermont Catamounts | 6.78 | 26.7-5.3 | 91.39% | 13 |
| 58 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 8.62 | 24.7-6.3 | 88.34% | 12 |
| 87 | Belmont Bruins | 5.45 | 21.7-5.3 | 87.29% | 14 |
| 79 | Princeton Tigers | 6.32 | 19.5-6.5 | 86.12% | 13 |
| 38 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 10.88 | 22.6-8.4 | 84.80% | 11 |
| 17 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 15.42 | 19.5-10.5 | 81.59% | 8 |
| 103 | New Mexico State Aggies | 4.32 | 21.8-5.2 | 80.28% | 14 |
| 95 | Valparaiso Crusaders | 4.93 | 23.0-7.0 | 78.75% | 13 |
| 30 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 12.37 | 20.4-9.6 | 77.92% | 6 |
| 114 | Winthrop Eagles | 3.35 | 22.7-6.3 | 77.80% | 15 |
| 67 | East Tennessee State Buccaneers | 8.06 | 22.6-7.4 | 76.98% | 15 |
| 83 | Bucknell Bison | 6.14 | 24.7-8.3 | 76.09% | 14 |
| 116 | Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | 3.05 | 22.8-7.2 | 73.36% | 15 |
| 108 | Akron Zips | 3.72 | 23.0-8.0 | 70.62% | 14 |
| 55 | Seton Hall Pirates | 8.88 | 19.3-10.7 | 69.57% | 12 |
| 32 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 12.24 | 17.5-12.5 | 65.54% | 10 |
| 54 | Providence Friars | 8.9 | 19.6-11.4 | 61.52% | 10 |
| 44 | Vanderbilt Commodores | 10.25 | 16.4-14.6 | 57.78% | 12 |
- Wichita State sits at 21st in the AP poll, so they didn't make the list, but they have a 93.21% chance to make the tournament and currently project as a 12 seed.
- Dayton projects as an 8 seed and ranks 33rd in the nation based on nERD. They're nearly a lock for the tournament and are projected to make the big dance in all 109 brackets on BracketMatrix with an average seed of 7.27. Per KenPom.com, Dayton ranks 49th in offense and 32nd in defense after adjusting for opponent and grade out in the 83rd and 95th percentile in offense and defense, respectively, per our metrics.
- The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders also make an appearance in all 109 brackets on BracketMatrix with an average seed of 10.89, pretty much in line with our projection of a 10 seed. They're in the 86th and 90th percentile in offense and defense in the nation.
- Providence ranks 54th in nERD thanks to a defense in the 80th percentile. The offense is just an average unit by our metrics and ranks 101st in adjusted offensive rating, per KenPom.com.
- Vanderbilt sits 44th in nERD and 40th by KenPom's ratings. They're in the 70th percentile on offense and 52nd defensively but have played the toughest schedule in the nation, per our algorithms.
