Week 1 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
Over/Under: 50.5
Patriots Implied Team Total: 28.25
Texans Implied Team Total: 22.25
Don't overthink this one. If you're playing NFL DFS in Week 1, you want to get in on this prolific matchup between Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, especially considering it has the highest over/under on the slate. When these two teams met in Foxborough last year, the teams combined for 69 total points and 679 total passing yards. While expecting those same lofty totals might be out of the question, there's a reason this game is expected to produce a lot of points.
Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $6,700
Sure, we all want to roster Tom Brady. But with the most expensive price tag of all quarterbacks on the slate ($8,600), it's more prudent to target Brady's weapons and use them to profit from his production. It's hard to believe Brady's number-one receiver (or number-two if you expect Rob Gronkowski to lead the team) is priced this low, but it's Week 1 and prices can be funky. With Julian Edelman suspended, Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola out of the picture, and no additions of note to the receiving corps, Chris Hogan is setup for massive volume.
Last year, with Cooks and Amendola in the lineup, Hogan still maintained a healthy 18.18% target market share in this offense. Our projections have Brady attempting 38.65 passes, which means that even without a bump in target share Hogan is looking at seven targets. That's solid given his price, but it doesn't account for a potentially large target bump given Brady's current lack of receiving weapons.
When we factor in that, over the last two seasons, Hogan already has more targets than Gronk inside the 10-yard line, he looks to have WR1 upside without the hefty price tag. After all, he scorched this same Texans defense for 4 catches, 68 yards and 2 touchdowns in last year's matchup. Get in now before Hogan is priced over $7,000 next week. His secure workload and touchdown upside in a projected high-scoring affair make him playable in cash games and GPPs.
James White, RB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $5,500
If you're looking for the cheapest way to get a piece of the Patriots' passing pie, then James White is your best option. Just the 36th most-expensive running back on the main slate, White has a sneaky path to see somewhere in the 10-to-14 touch range. Similar to Hogan above, White is a great option given both his price and the lack of guys competing for targets.
With Edelman out, the Patriots have almost no proven targets behind Hogan and Gronk. Over the first nine weeks of 2017, before Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis emerged as a two-headed backfield monster, White maintained a stellar 17.53% target share in the Pats offense. What's more, here are his career splits when Edelman is out of the lineup.
With Edelman out and both Burkhead and Sony Michel dealing with knee injuries, White is one of Brady's few trusted (and active) playmakers heading into Week 1. He's a cost-saving option in any and all formats.
Others to Consider
Deshaun Watson ($8,200) is in play in GPPs given his 24.1 fantasy points per game a year ago. Still, he doesn't come without risk, especially at that price. Given Houston's bottom-tier offensive line and that we haven't seen Watson's mobility since recovering from his second ACL tear, it's probably wise to take a wait-and-see approach with the second-year QB.
That said, there's still plenty of upside with Watson's receiving options in a potential shootout. DeAndre Hopkins ($8,800) tied with Antonio Brown to lead the league with 11.6 targets per game last season, so he's pretty much always rosterable in both cash and GPPs. His price tag should leave ownership in check, and after not re-signing Malcolm Butler the Patriots don't have anyone capable of covering him. Just know there's less room for error as the second most-expensive receiver on the board.
Will Fuller ($6,400) is too volatile for cash, but if you're looking for a high-upside, high-variance play to round out your GPP lineup, you can certainly do worse. He scored an absurdly unsustainable seven touchdowns in just four games with Watson last year, but there's room for production even when that touchdown rate crashes back to earth. His deep-speed skillset matches perfectly with Watson's aggressive play style, and no team allowed more 20-plus yard completions than the Patriots last season.
The fantasy talent that is Gronk ($7,900) doesn't need much explanation. Per usual, he's the most expensive tight end on the board, but the matchup is tasty. The Texans allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points to tight ends last year, and Gronk has, for his career, averaged over two more points per game when playing in a game with an over/under above 45.
Lamar Miller ($6,500) is the safest combination of workload and price, whcih is ideal for rounding out a cash lineup. According to numberFire's projections, he's slated for roughly 16 touches, which could be his floor given a solidified role as a "three-down back". While buying into coachspeak can be dangerous, Miller being a workhorse certainly jives with Houston's backfield depth chart with D'Onta Foreman starting the year on the PUP list. Assuming that's the case and he'll see the passing-down work, as well as the early down touches, Miller's game-script proof role makes him an ideal play in this potential shootout. It's also worth noting that Miller gets a boost from Watson's return; he averaged 11.41 fantasy points per game without Watson last year but 14.86 when Watson played.
