DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4
At numberFire, not only do we offer multiple DFS articles (like this one) each and every week, we've also got the tools you need to build lineups and sort through projections that are specific to the scoring system used by DraftKings. And there is perhaps no better way to quickly see the big picture of how the slate is shaping up than by viewing the Matchup Heat Map.
In addition to all the written content and awesome tools, we also have podcasts that preview all the upcoming action. Perhaps best of all, numberFire Premium subscribers aren't just limited to NFL DFS. As MLB winds down, the action is about to start in both the NBA and NHL. So, yeah, we've got the tools to help you find success in those sports, as well.
Deshaun Watson ($6,400): Even though Deshaun Watson has exceeded 29 DraftKings points in two of his three starts, his price tag remained flat from last week while facing numberFire's seventh-best pass defense. Thus far, the opposing Carolina Panthers have limited Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, and Kyler Murray to an average fewer than 190 passing yards per gamer. Last week, however, Murray found the end zone twice and ran for 69 yards. Suited nicely for tournaments, Watson has already flashed serious upside as a premier dual-threat fantasy quarterback.
Russell Wilson ($6,100): Last week, Russell Wilson threw a career-high 50 passes completing 32 of them for 406 yards and two touchdowns. On the ground, Wilson added 51 yards and two more scores. The Arizona Cardinals will be playing their third home game in four weeks but, in addition to Lamar Jackson rushing for 120 yards against them, all three opposing quarterbacks that faced them threw for multiple touchdowns. Arizona had already allowed nine passing touchdowns, which puts them in the company of only the Miami Dolphins and Washington. Based on numberFire's projections, Wilson is the No. 2 points-per-dollar play at quarterback. Wilson is a luxury in cash games but someone to use heavily in tournaments.
Daniel Jones ($5,300): Speaking of projections and top values, Daniel Jones looks like a census cash game play on DraftKings in Week 4. Expect nothing less when a player is priced this cheap after perhaps the most impressive rookie debut in NFL history, featuring 336 passing yards and four total touchdowns. Allen ran for 17 touchdowns and more than 1,300 yards over three years at Duke, which becomes even more impressive because sacks count against rushing yards in college football. The New York Giants will host Washington in a game that could get out of hand as it features two of the worst three pass defenses by our metrics. Washington has allowed all three opposing quarterbacks thus far to record a hat trick while also allowing 69 rushing yards to Dak Prescott.
Marlon Mack ($6,100): It's very obvious that Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) is a great play that should be highly-owned in all formats. By all means, use plenty of CMC in your Week 4 lineups. Also, think about mixing in some Marlon Mack in tournaments. Believe it or not, Mack leads the league with 61 carries and has six more rushing first downs than anyone. According to PlayerPlayer ranks fourth in Evaded Tackles, 10th in Red Zone Touches, and 11th in Opportunity Share. The Oakland Raiders were smashed in the run game by the Minnesota Vikings last week and while seeing three targets in each of the last two games is encouraging, getting the ball to Mack as a receiver has never been a priority for the Colts. To pay off, Mack will need to maximize what hopes to be a day in which he sees 20-plus carries as a home favorite.
Phillip Lindsay ($5,200): Priced way too cheap in which looked like a challenging road matchup at the Green Bay Packers, Phillip Lindsay rewarded savvy DFS players that saw the usage of double-digit carries and half a dozen targets in each of the first two games. Aided by an injury to Royce Freeman (shoulder), Lindsay ran 21 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns. As a pass-catcher, he caught four balls for the third consecutive game and recorded a season-high 49 receiving yards. The opposing Jacksonville Jaguars also appear intimidating, and Linsday did see a price increase of $900. Freeman's shoulder injury doesn't appear to be serious, but Lindsay is once again showing Denver that perhaps the undrafted running back is better than the third-round selection.
Wayne Gallman ($4,600): The first name you click on when entering a DFS contest this week on DraftKings is Wayne Gallman. Saquon Barkley is dealing with a high-ankle sprain and is going to miss several weeks. Even though they are inside the top-10 of rushing yards allowed, Washington looks mediocre in terms of giving up fantasy points to running backs, however, our metrics have them as the sixth-worst rush defense in the league. In 31 career games, Gallman has only seen double-digit carries on six occasions and has never rushed for more than 90 yards in a contest. Opportunity, not talent, is what matters at such low a price. In this same price range, Darrel Williams ($4,700) could be a viable pivot option based on the availability of LeSean McCoy (ankle).
Tyler Lockett ($6,300): After only seeing two targets in the season opener, Tyler Lockett has been targeted a total of 26 times over the last two weeks. Last week, Russell Wilson attempted a career-high in pass attempts and connected with Lockett on 11 of 14 targets for 154 yards and a touchdown. Even though the opposing Cardinals have been without star cornerback Patrick Peterson (suspension), the only receiver that has exceeded 100 yards against them us far is Danny Amendola. That said, Lockett should be a popular play, and for good reason. According to PlayerProfliler, Lockett is top-five in both Deep Targets and Catachable Target Rate (96.4 percent). For those for a cheaper way to stack what could be a very explosive game, D.K. Metcalf ($4,800) actually has more air yards than Lockett on nine fewer targets.
Kenny Golladay ($5,900): After fizzling out in a strong matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles that saw teammate Marvin Jones exceed 100 yards and score a touchdown, Kenny Golladay will look to bounce back as the Detroit Lions head back home to host the Kansas City Chiefs. After seeing three different wide receivers from Jacksonville score on them in the opener, Kansas City only allowed one other wide receiver to score against them while holding each individual wideout from the Raiders and Baltimore Ravens to under 50 receiving yards. In addition to being first in the league with 10 Deep Targets, according to PlayerProfiler, Golladay is top-five in air yards, and top-15 in overall target share. Now priced under-$6K, Golladay is an extremely appealing tournament option.
Terry McLaurin ($4,500): Even though Terry McLaurin has exceeded 60 receiving yards and scored a touchdown in each game, DraftKings can't adjust his price quickly enough. As mentioned earlier, the only pass defense worse than the Dolphins, according to our metrics, is Washington and New York. In only three games, a total six different wide receivers have recorded 70 receiving yards or more against the Giants. Expect McLaurin to be heavily-owned in all formats, but consider Curtis Samuel ($4,600) as a pivot option in a very similar price range.
Darren Waller ($5,200): Thanks to a massive 30.2 percent target share, no other tight end is at 25 percent, Darren Waller leads tight ends in catch rate, receptions, and in Yards per Pass Route, per PlayerProfiler. In addition to the volume, Derek Carr is delivering Waller the ball with the fifth-best Catchable Target Rate at 96.6 percent. Indianapolis was scored on twice by tight end Austin Hooper last week, and just last year had a defense that allowed 159 more receiving yards to tight ends than any other team. Many players will attempt to find the additional $500 for Evan Engram, but Waller's ownership may be similar with so few appealing options at tight end this week.
Will Dissly ($3,600): To say that the Arizona Cardinals are having problems guarding the tight end position might be an understatement. After allowing 131 yards and a touchdown to rookie T.J. Hockenson in the opener, Mark Andrews recorded 112 yards and touchdown, and last week saw Greg Olsen turn back the clock for 75 yards and a pair of scores. And while second-year tight end Will Dissly doesn't have that level of name recognition, he was a fourth-round pick that also had a 100-yard game in his debut. Dissly's rookie season ended with a knee injury in Week 4 last year, but he appears to have made a strong recovery from the dreaded torn patella tendon. In addition to sitting top-10 in air yards at his position, Dissly has recorded a total of 11 receptions, 112 yards, and three touchdowns over the last two weeks. Given the cheap price, the stellar matchup, and the recent hot streak, Dissly is going to be a popular salary saver.
Carolina D/ST ($2,300): Even though the Carolina Panthers are on the road against Deshaun Watson this week, they just played a road game in which they sacked a mobile quarterback, Kyler Murray, eight times and intercepted him twice. Additionally, Carolina is currently second in passing yards allowed and tied for third in sacks and quarterback hits. Our metrics also view the Panthers pass defense as a fordable unit, seventh overall.
Tampa Bay D/ST ($2,100): If you need to save even more salary on defense, Tampa Bay might be the answer. We'd rather face Jared Goff on the road, but it's hard to complain when the price is only $100 from the minimal salary. Additionally, Goff has been sacked five times over the last two games. During the same span, Tampa has eight sacks. As one of the most improved defensive squads in the league, Tampa is 11th in stopping opponents on third down and they've only allowed three red zone touchdowns thus far.
Eric McClung is not a FanDuel employee. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.