3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 4
We have loads of pieces on numberFire dedicated to helping you figure out which plays you should target in your daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. And you should definitely check them all out!
But an underrated aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play. Narrowing down your short list of potential plays by avoiding those who are overpriced and/or in tough matchups goes a long way towards ensuring that you create optimal lineups.
Let's go through three guys to consider fading on this week's DFS main slates.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
FanDuel Price: $7,400
DraftKings Price: $5,600
Who thought in Week 4, we would get the treat of two undefeated teams taking aim at each other in the AFC East?
It's pretty like that people expected this from the New England Patriots, but Buffalo? Not so much.
To spring the upset and move to a surprising 4-0, a heavy burden will be placed on the shoulders of Josh Allen, but he could be in for a tough day. In peeking at our per-play metrics, the Pats rank first -- in every category. It's a very big reason they have been so stout this year and top our power rankings.
While Allen has been pretty average as a passer, clocking in with a Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) mark of 0.09 per drop back, his rushing floor is what carries him. However, the Patriots present a unique challenge given their prowess against the run as well.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
FanDuel Price: $8,000
DraftKings Price: $6,800
Last week turned into an absolute train wreck for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With rookie Daniel Jones inserted at the helm of running the New York Giants offense, he led them to a monster come-from-behind win over the reeling Bucs.
And while it may be hard to judge the performance of the Bucs' D with Saquon Barkley leaving with a high ankle sprain, Tampa has now been pretty stout against the run in three straight weeks. They limited Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida to a combined 77 yards on 24 carries in Week 1, they were fantastic against Christian McCaffrey in Week 2 with only 37 yards on 16 carries, and were strong against the Giants. We have them as the second-best run D in the league.
As heavy favorites this week at -9, and 60% of the money coming in on the home Rams per oddsFire, a run-heavy script makes sense for Todd Gurley. But in peering into Gurley's past performances, such as Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns, he touched the rock 14 times.
Pair a strong run D against a back that may see limited volume, and Gurley doesn't feel like a safe bet.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
FanDuel Price: $6,900
DraftKings Price: $6,700
The wide receiver that we project to score the third-most points at the position is on the fade list? Stay with me fam.
It's no secret that the Kansas City Chiefs are a paced-up, high-flying offensive attack that seems to score at will. And, Sammy Watkins is sure to be part of that attack.
But there are some red flags that for DFS purposes in Week 4, Watkins may not be a sure bet. First, the Detroit Lions, Kansas City's opponent this week, have been damn good against the pass. We have them as the ninth-best pass D, and only Larry Fitzgerald topped 100 receiving yards against them, and he got an extra 15 minutes to do so.
The Lions defensive line is also going to test KC a bit -- they have nine sacks already, which could put Mahomes under pressure. Betting against Patrick Mahomes is always a scary proposition, but this could be a tough week for him and the rest of the offense.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
