4 DraftKings Studs to Target in Week 5
Week 5 is upon us, and it is now time to figure out who we want to trust this week.
There are many different high-priced studs to target on DraftKings, so let's see which ones stand out and project to be high-end performers according to our models.
DraftKings Price: $6,700
Projected Points: 21.5
Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans offense failed us miserably last week, but this week brings another chance to jump right back on. Houston owns the third-highest team total on the main slate with 27 at home against the Atlanta Falcons. The pace of play in this one should be appealing as the Falcons have the fifth-highest neutral situation pass rate and seventh-highest opponent neutral situation pass rate. Also in Watson's favor is the fact that Atlanta’s defense only has a 5% adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders, which ranks just 26th in the NFL. This is a welcoming site for Watson, as he has been sacked 18 times already on the season.
Over the last two games, Atlanta has allowed Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota to combine for 47.1 DraftKings points, which has caused the Falcons to move to 25th in passing defense using our play by play data. In the two duds Watson has put up, he was quite poor on deep passes. He only hit on 3 of 17 attempts that were 16 or more Air Yards down the field. The good news for Watson is that all four quarterbacks who have faced the Falcons have combined to hit greater than 50% of their attempts 16 or more Air Yards down the field. Our projections are high on the Texans this week and like Watson to compete for the Week 5 QB1 spot.
DraftKings Price: $8,300
Projected Points: 21.5
The Dallas Cowboys showed their true colors on how they are going to handle the backfield in close, competitive games last week. Ezekiel Elliott handled every single running back touch and only missed two offensive snaps. Over his last three games, his touch totals have been 25, 21, and 24. Those are totals that we were accustomed to seeing all of last season. Last week did, however, bring a welcome sight to our eyes for DraftKings scoring as he saw his highest target total with seven. Elliott has had 20 career games where he has seen five or more targets, and in those contests he has averaged 21.2 DraftKings points.
The Cowboys are 3.5-point home favorites against the Green Bay Packers this week, with an implied team total of 24.5. The matchup for Elliott could not be any better, as Green Bay ranks 32nd in Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. The Packers have given up the following DraftKings finishes over the last three weeks: RB1, RB4, and RB3. With Zeke back to his normal heavy workload, he makes sense as a top spend at the position this week.
DraftKings Salary: $7,800
Projected Points: 19.1
The NFL didn't do DeAndre Hopkins any favors with the Houston Texans schedule early in the season. In three consecutive weeks he has faced high end shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey, Casey Hayward, and James Bradberry. Despite those matchups, Hopkins still owns the fourth-highest team target share (28.6%) and finds himself within the top ten in Air Yards among all wide receivers. It should only be a matter of time until Watson and Hopkins get back on track, and there are signs that it could be this week against Atlanta.
Even though the majority of the early bets for this game's total is on the under, it still has the highest total on the board and Houston is expected to put up a lot of points this week. As stated earlier, Atlanta owns a bottom-five pass defense -- they are tied for the second most touchdowns given up to receivers, and have allowed three different wideouts to finish with a weekly top ten DraftKings output. Vegas believes Houston will get back on track, and so do we at numberFire. Hopkins is projected the top scoring receiver in Week 5.
DraftKings Salary: $6,000
Projected Points: 15.0
Zach Ertz has been fairly unlucky to start the season. Ertz is tied for third in the NFL in red zone targets, but has yet to hit pay dirt through four games. He currently finds himself eight in our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric among all tight ends. It sounds like the status for DeSean Jackson is still uncertain for this week against the New York Jets, which only helps Ertz's volume, which has been steady over the last three weeks at a 29.2% target share.
The Philadelphia Eagles are tied for the highest implied team total of the week (28.75) as massive home favorites against the Jets. It is hard to read into tight end stats against New York because they have only been targeted eight times through three weeks. Ertz seems like a top option at the position since the Eagles are heavily involving him and will be looking for him in the red zone in a game where they are expected to pile on points. Our projections have his chances of finding the end zone way higher than any other tight end this week. Fire up Ertz with confidence, as it is only a matter of time before him and Wentz connect for a score.
Adam Nessel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Nessel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ANessel01. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.