FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 5 Thursday Night
The Los Angeles Rams head up the coast to square off with the Seattle Seahawks tonight.
Our models have this game being a tight one as we forecast Seattle to win by a score of 27.68-25.78. That pretty much falls in line with the spread as the Seahawks are 1.5-point favorites.
Interestingly, though, 78% of the bets on the moneyline as well as 79% of the money on moneyline wagers is on the Rams, per oddsFire. In addition to that, 67% of the money being placed on the total is on the over.
Having at least somewhat of a feel for what the public is thinking can be very handy in DFS. And with such a close game expected, you can go any number of ways with your lineup construction tonight.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Jared Goff, QB, Rams ($14,500)
While Russell Wilson is the slate's top-projected player, per our models, I like Jared Goff as an MVP play for a few reasons.
The biggest of those is ownership as Wilson may wind up being a chalk MVP choice as he's at home versus an LA defense that just got pantsed by Jameis Winston. But prior to that whacky game, LA had been very tough defensively this season, and even with Winston's blow-up outing factored in, the Rams are allowing the eighth-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. Oh, and Seattle hates passing as Wilson has posted 35 or fewer pass attempts in three of four games. If you think the Rams win and force Seattle to air it out more, then, by all means, use Wilson in the MVP spot.
Goff, on the other hand, shouldn't be as popular of an MVP play, and our models have him projected for just 1.1 fewer FanDuel points. Yes, Goff is usually much better at home, but this is a Seattle defense that's given up 418 yards and two scores to Andy Dalton and 16.28 FanDuel points on just 27 pass attempts to Teddy Bridgewater in its two home games in 2019.
While fading Wilson entirely is obviously a risky move, Goff makes a lot of sense as an MVP play.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams ($12,000)
If you're willing to slot Goff into your MVP spot, then you might as well stack him with at least one of his wideouts.
Good luck figuring out which ones to use.
Cooper Kupp (27%) leads the Rams' receivers in target share, with Robert Woods (22%) and Brandin Cooks (18%) a good bit back. But Cooks paces the team in air yards share at a clip of 31%, per airyards.com, while Woods and Kupp each have 26% marks.
Using Cooks is wishing on his big-play ability, but he's likely to see less ownership than Kupp, who figures to be the chalk play among the Rams' receivers. And it's not like Cooks' floor is that low as he's gone for at least 71 yards in three of four outings in 2019.
Todd Gurley, RB, Rams ($11,500)
Gurley isn't an every-snap workhorse any longer, but he's still been in on 71.2% of the Rams' offensive plays this year, per Football Outsiders. That's a better snap rate than Chris Carson, who has logged only a 60.6% clip despite Rashaad Penny -- who is expected back tonight -- missing the last two weeks.
After Malcolm Brown got five red zone carries in Week 1, he's seen just three total red zone rushes since. Meanwhile, Gurley has gotten nine red zone carries over the last three weeks.
Our projections have Gurley as the top non-quarterback on the slate, and we have him pegged for 0.58 rushing touchdowns.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks ($11,000)
Tyler Lockett's big-play chops are hugely appealing on single-game slates, and he's seeing a 24% target share for Seattle, with no other player above 17%. The workload has been all over the place, though, as he's recorded target counts of two, 12, 14 and four this season.
He's a classic low-floor, high-ceiling play right now, but the floor should be higher this week thanks to Lockett running 65.7% of his snaps out of the slot, according to PlayerProfiler. Bucs slot receiver Chris Godwin just lit up these Rams for 12 grabs, 172 yards, and two scores, and Seattle might try to avoid Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters by funneling targets to the slot the same way Tampa Bay did.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks ($7,500)
As we mentioned earlier, Penny is going to be back tonight after he was left off the Seahawks' final injury report. That suggests he's fully healthy, and with Carson putting the ball on the ground a lot lately, Penny could get good run.
That's far from a lock, though, as Penny saw snap rates of just 26% and 33% in the first two games before sitting in Week 3 and Week 4. But at this price, it's worth a roll of the dice, especially if you think Seattle sees a positive game script. Penny got just three targets over the first two weeks and saw just 12 total targets in 2018, so if Seattle falls behind, he might not be much of a factor.
