3 NFL Prop Bets to Target for Week 6
FanDuel SportsBook provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, giving you a chance to stay involved in a familiar way. With Week 6 on the horizon, here are a few standout prop bets for Sunday's action this week.
Baker Mayfield Over 258.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Mired in a dismal start to 2019, Baker Mayfield is averaging only 249.4 passing yards per game. His season hit rock bottom on primetime last week with only 100 yards and two interceptions. However, Mayfield enters Week 6 with a reduced passing yards prop of 258.5 yards for his matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.
Using numberFire's projections, Mayfield projects for 274.73 passing yards in Week 6, giving him more than 15 yards of value on his prop. Seattle's defense ranks 25th against the pass, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics, making this a solid matchup for Mayfield. Importantly, the Seahawks also struggle to generate pressure, ranking bottom 10 in sacks and quarterback hits. This should give Mayfield time to find Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry
With Mayfield in a nice matchup, a $100 bet on the second-year passer eclipsing 258.5 passing yards nets $89.29.
Chris Carson Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
After an early-season fumbling problem nearly cost him his starting job, Chris Carson looks to have reasserted himself as Seattle's lead back. Carson averages 76 rushing yards per game, with more than 100 on the ground in each of Seattle's last two outings. Importantly, volume continues to work in Carson's favor with carry counts of 22 and 27 each of the past two weeks.
This week, Seattle enters a Week 6 clash against the Browns as 1.5-point favorites, putting game script in Carson's favor. Matchup also favors Carson in this contest, with Cleveland ranking 26th against the run, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. Right now, our projections slate Carson for 85.92 rushing yards versus Cleveland, giving him nearly five yards of value on his player prop.
With a matchup against a struggling Browns' defense and an offensive commitment to the run, a $100 bet on Chris Carson besting 80.5 rushing yards nets $90.91.
Dallas Goedert Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
While most continue to focus on Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert quietly looks capable of benefiting from a strong matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Goedert remains a risky play for a number of reasons, including his stat-line. The second-year pro has only five catches for 43 yards this season.
However, with DeSean Jackson still nursing an abdominal injury, the Philadelphia Eagles continue to run a majority of their plays out of 12-personnel. Last week, the Eagles used 12 personnel on 63 percent of their offensive plays, leading to three targets for Goedert on a 74 percent snap share.
As a part-time player, our projections forecast Goedert for 19.56 receiving yards, but his high snap share in the Eagles' offense creates a ceiling for much more. Looking at the matchup, Goedert faces a strong Minnesota defense, one that ranks eighth overall against the pass. However, they remain vulnerable to enemy tight ends, allowing the fourth-most catches to the position so far this season (35).
While Goedert might seem risky, his role in the Eagle's offense and a matchup against the Vikings make him a sharp play. Right now, a $100 bet on Goedert passing 18.5 receiving yards nets $84.75.