4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 7
Fantasy value can be defined in so many ways. In season-long leagues, one might determine value by looking at output compared to draft position. In daily leagues, we're often looking at output per $1,000 in salary.
Finding cheap players who can bust out for big games is pivotal to fitting in high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, and it is a key component of tournament-winning lineups.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced at or under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced at or under $5,000, and tight ends priced at or under $4,000.
Some value players jump out and will have wildly high ownership, while others aren't as obvious. To make your decisions easier, we're here to crunch the numbers and do our best to point out those bargains to you.
So, what are we waiting for? Let's go digging for value!
Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings Price: $5,400
Projected Points: 18.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.35
Week 6 was a wake-up call for rookie sensation and 'stache icon Gardner Minshew. The Jacksonville Jaguars' quarterback was coming off a 374-yard, two-score performance against the Carolina Panthers, but the New Orleans Saints were far from as forgiving. Minshew completed just 14-of-29 passes for 163 yards, no scores, and a pick. Fortunately for Jags fans and those wanting to use Minshew in fantasy this week, he has a much easier matchup on tap for Week 7.
The Jags will travel to Ohio to take on the Cincinnati Bengals, an 0-6 team that has struggled to find its footing. While Cincy is perhaps better known for being a haven for opposing running backs, they been poor against signal callers, as well, and they've been torn up in several ways.
The team allowed multiple passing scores in three of the first four weeks of the season. While they, miraculously, didn't allow a passing score in either of the past two weeks, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson combined for 245 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.
While Minshew is known better for his arm, he's actually been effective at times on the ground this season. His 125 rushing yards are the eighth-most of any quarterback, and he's twice rushed for more than 40 yards in a game.
We have Minshew projected to have his third-highest rushing total of the season and forecast him for 18.1 DraftKings points, good enough to make him our second-highest projected quarterback value of the week.
Tarik Cohen, RB, Chicago Bears
DraftKings Price: $4,600
Projected Points: 11.8
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.56
There's little arguing that Tarik Cohen has been a frustrating player to use in fantasy in 2019. A year after finishing as the RB11 in PPR leagues (and the RB8 in return leagues), Cohen's production has fallen off a cliff.
We can certainly chalk up a lot of that to newcomer David Montgomery, who is the clear lead back in the running game, but Cohen had to also split touches with Jordan Howard last year, and that didn't stop him. Instead, head coach Matt Nagy has decided to not use Cohen nearly as much in the passing game as he did a year ago.
This didn't seem like it would be the case in Week 1, when Cohen thrilled PPR owners with eight receptions on 10 targets. Since then, he's caught no more than two passes in a game and has seen more than five targets just once. He'll have a chance to be more involved this week, however, when the Chicago Bears host the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints aren't an obvious good matchup for opposing running backs, but for Cohen, they just might be. New Orleans is giving up the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game to running backs this year, but there is an opportunity for Cohen to carve out some value nonetheless as the Saints are just middle-of-the-pack in receptions allowed to opposing backs, who have caught 5.3 passes per game against them.
If the Bears want to win in a tough matchup this week, increasing Cohen's usage could help push them in that direction, especially against a Saints defense that has allowed just the seventh-fewest PPR points to wide receivers over the past three weeks. We have Cohen projected for a baseline of 11.8 DraftKings points with upside for 23.2, a number which would return just over 5.0 DraftKings points per $1,000.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings Price: $4,800
Projected Points: 10.9
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.27
Unlike some weeks when finding wide receiver value is easy, Week 7 presents some challenges in that regard. There is likely going to be some strong value with either Tavon Austin or Devin Smith for the Dallas Cowboys, but they play Sunday night, which isn't included on the main slate.
On paper, D.K. Metcalf may not look like the most obvious choice to use as a value play. His $4,800 salary is tied for the highest it's been all year, and after seeing at least six targets in each of his first three games, he only has 12 combined targets over his past three contests.
The Seattle Seahawks have worked on being a running team again this year, and they've been successful at it. Only three teams have a lower pass-to-run ratio than the 'Hawks, whose 130.5 rushing yards per game rank ninth in the league. Chris Carson has three-straight 100-yard games. They might need to change-up their strategy somewhat this week, however.
The Baltimore Ravens are allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game this season, the fourth-lowest total in the league (though their goal-line defense has been poor, allowing eight rushing scores already). They have, however, given up the seventh-most receiving yards per game this year, which has translated into them surrendering the 11th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing wideouts. The Ravens will be getting help soon, but it may not come this week. Cornerback Jimmy Smith is now practicing, but it's doubtful he returns this week; they should have newly acquired Marcus Peters in some capacity, though.
The Ravens have allowed 12 wideouts to score double-digit points against them this season, an average of two per game. We project Metcalf to get there, as well, pegging him for a baseline of 10.9 DraftKings points with upside for 22.3.
Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
DraftKings Price: $4,000
Projected Points: 12.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.03
Welcome back, Hunter Henry! Questionable coming into Week 6, Henry took the field for the first time since Week 1 and dominated the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 24-17 loss, catching 8-of-9 targets for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Repeating that level of success may be hard to do, but we have him projected to return a solid value on DraftKings nonetheless.
Henry comes into this week with a salary of just $4,000, far below where he'd likely be had he stayed healthy all year. His opponent in Week 7, the Tennessee Titans, were, until shutting down Noah Fant last week, struggling to stop tight ends, giving up at least 100 receiving yards or a score to the position in each of Weeks 1 through 5.
Henry has now finished with double-digit outputs on DraftKings in his past five full games dating back to before the injury that kept him out last year (he had 3 catches for 28 yards before getting that injury in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs in Week 15 or 2017).
His 11.4 yards per target rank first among tight ends, and his 85.7% catch rate checks in second. He is also the top tight end by numberFire's Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per Target metric. We like him to continue his success this week, projecting him to finish with 4.7 receptions, 55.4 yards, and 0.3 scores. All said, we have him projected for 3.03 DraftKings points per $1,000, the highest projected point-per-dollar value at the position.
Ian Goldsmith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian Goldsmith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username zoidbergs_revenge. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
