The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 7
In Week 6, the public went 1-1-1 on the three most popular bets. The over between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans pushed at 55, but while the Seattle Seahawks covered against the Cleveland Browns, the Philadelphia Eagles fell to the Minnesota Vikings on the road.
Sunday and Monday provide plenty more opportunity to get in on the action at FanDuel Sportsbook. This week, we have another 13 games on tap, consisting of 10 (!) games with a spread inside 6.5 points. It should be a fun and competitive week for sure.
But which games and lines are getting the most action? Thanks to numberFire's new oddsFire tool, we can see exactly that -- where the public is laying the most bets and what percentage of money is on which team and which side of the total.
Using oddsFire as our guide, let's dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public's heavy investment.
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) at Washington
Apparently, everyone is buying into the really hot 5-0 team covering against the reeling 1-5 team in their second week removed from the firing of their head coach. Per oddsFire, 91% of the bets and 95% of the money is on San Francisco to win by double digits on the road in Washington.
The only shaky thing about this is the line movement. After opening at -10, the Niners have lost half a point, but that's also opened up the opportunity for them to win by a touchdown and a field goal and still cover the spread in doing so. And other books, for what it's worth, have remained steady with them as 10-point favorites.
This year, teams that have been favored by at least 9.5 are 7-6 against the spread, per Killer Sports. In games those teams have played on the road, they are 4-0, winning by an average of 26.7 points and covering by 11.3 points a game. One of those instances comes courtesy of this very Washington team, who lost 33-7 to the New England Patriots in Week 5 (the spread was 16.5).
Furthering the public support for the boys from the bay, Washington is 11-13 against the spread when pegged as underdogs of 9.5 or more (a 2-3 mark since 2013). As for the 49ers, they are exactly 50% against the spread since Kyle Shanahan's first year, but they are 4-1 this year with an average margin of 16.6 points in their favor.
Riding with Jimmy Garoppolo and company doesn't sound like much of a risk.
Philadelphia Eagles (+122) at Dallas Cowboys
For a second straight week, a visiting Eagles team finds itself a heavy public favorite on the moneyline despite underdog odds. Upon opening at +128, Philadelphia's odds have shortened up to +122 thanks to 94% of bets and 94% of the money laid on their side of this NFC East matchup in Dallas.
The Dallas Cowboys enter this week on a three-game losing streak after opening up with three wins over lesser opponents. Meanwhile, Philadelphia -- also at 3-3 -- emerges from a loss of their own in Week 6, and they're actually six spots behind Dallas in our current power rankings.
The venue favors the home team here, as Dallas is 2-1 at AT&T Stadium this year and 10-2 going back to the beginning of last year's campaign. They have won by 7.3 points per game at home in that span, and when favored, they have won 8 of 10 by an average of 5.1.
Philly is winless in their last three head-to-heads with their divisional foes, yet they have won four of the six games played in Dallas since 2013. Under Doug Pederson, they are 11-12 as underdogs but 6-10 as road 'dogs. That includes an 0-3 record within the division.
As much as the Cowboys are tripping up lately, they should be able to get by here. Wise bettors should fade the narrative and hope to capitalize on Dallas' -140 odds.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (Under 44.5)
At first glance, a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals has the makings of a low-scoring affair. The Jags have become accustomed to pounding the rock with Leonard Fournette and riding their defense, but that defense is in the middle of the pack this year and Gardner Minshew has provided them with a balanced offensive attack (with Fournette more involved out of the backfield as a receiver).
As for the Bengals, they're just a poor football team. They're 0-6, sit 28th in our power rankings and score a lowly 16.2 points per game.
Should we expect this to hold and the two teams combined for less than 45 points? This year's data answers in the affirmative.
To date, there have been 29 games with an over/under between 43 and 46. That sample has produced 18 unders and 2 pushes to just 9 wins for the over. Teams have averaged 39.6 points between them -- 4.7 short of the set total. In the two contests involving the Jaguars, the under is undefeated with combined scores of 25 and 19 points.
Overall, the over and under are an even 3-3 in Jacksonville games. However, there has been an average of 41.3 points scored, and when the total's been under 50, those games have failed to reach 28 points on three occasions.
Cincinnati has seen the under win out in four of their first six games under coach Zac Taylor, and it's done the same in four of the five games they have entered as underdogs. In that subset, Cincy and their opponents have averaged 41.4 points, which would fall comfortably below this week's target.
This is one of those times when the data totally matches up with the expectation.
