NFL Weather Report: Week 9
The Sunday morning ahead of Week 8 was a mess -- both metaphorically and within a couple of stadiums.
The wind was whipping across New Era Field at 30 MPH ahead of the Buffalo Bills’ game. Rain had already passed, leaving the field damp, but the fantasy community was left to worry about the gusty conditions. Not far away, the rain was pouring over in Foxboro before the New England Patriots’ contest. The assumption was that the field would be covered prior to kickoff, but tarps were never rolled out.
Last minute roster swaps were made as game conditions were downgraded. Deep passing was expected to be limited in Buffalo, capping the upside of players like John Brown. Running backs now had more upside due to potential volume. The general narratives surrounding extreme weather were integrated into the process, and the results met expectations. Philadelphia won with a 42.1% pass rate, deviating from their 55.8% rate in weeks prior. Josh Allen’s 4.97 yards per attempt was his lowest on the season as only two of his deep attempts connected. Baker Mayfield’s average depth of target in New England was down 17.2% as he went up against second-best pass defense, per our schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) metric -- with the rain coming down.
Week 8 gave us more clarity in comparison to previous weeks. The concern was escalated from slipping on turf or a loose ball, to the ball not even getting to its target. Extreme cases warrant a second look at our rosters before kickoff. With upside potentially limited in weather-impacted games, switching to other players may become the optimal move given the game conditions.
We’ll look for similar situations as we turn to Week 9.
Overview
Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 9.
| Game | Temperature | Chance of Precipitation | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans at Jaguars | 51.3 | 75.0% | 9.8 mph WSW |
| Jets at Dolphins | 83.3 | 38.5% | 11.8 mph NE |
| Washington at Bills | 39 | 24.5% | 15.3 mph W |
Games Impacted by Rain
Houston Texans (23.5-implied point total) at Jacksonville Jaguars (22.5)
New York Jets (22.75) at Miami Dolphins (19.75)
We’ve lucked out this week.
Both games with rain in the forecast are projected to have no more than 0.01 inches per hour. The New York-Miami game won’t see rain until the back end of the second half. Hard Rock Stadium uses a dense grass system on the field, reducing absorption and maintaining footing during cuts. Minimal impact is expected.
Reminder: the Houston-Jacksonville will be hosted in London at Wembley Stadium. The soccer stadium does have hybrid grass on the field, which indicates mud or slick surfaces are possible. However, the light rain reduces the concern on the entire game to a small subset of plays. Unless the forecast changes, the expectation is that no lineup adjustments will be required ahead of the final overseas game this season.
Games Impacted by Wind
Washington (13.75-implied point total) at Buffalo Bills (23.25)
Again, we lucked out.
Wind speeds do tick over the 15-MPH threshold to start the game, the barrier that typically causes concern. But the maximum projected velocity tops out at 16 MPH. We’ve already discussed the offensive shift for Josh Allen in extreme conditions. Week 9’s conditions are on the opposite end of the spectrum, limiting any concern with regards to the wind.
However, there is slight chance of rain as indicated in the overview table. While only light rain is expected, it’s been noted that Washington has already begun preparing for subpar conditions. Regardless, we’ll continue to monitor the forecast as minimal impacts are expected.
