4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 10
If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options who could go overlooked.
Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 10 of the 2019 NFL season.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
FanDuel Price: $7,200
Ryan Tannehill is a good fantasy option, and you should be rostering him ... *ducks*.
Yes, Tannehill is in a good/great spot this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, and you want to look toward him in tournaments. We all know that fantasy scoring for quarterbacks isn't that large of a difference from the top-tier to the mid-tier, which makes spending down in DFS so enticing. It not only brings you salary relief to your lineup but also the potential to find a quarterback who can exceed his expectation. Not all high-priced quarterbacks put up numbers each week (see: Aaron Rodgers last week) and some lower-priced quarterbacks can do well (see: Ryan Fitzpatrick last week).
From a matchup perspective, Tannehill is in a good spot as the Chiefs are allowing 20.0 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, the 10th most in the league. OK, so the matchup is good. What about the game environment? The Tennessee Titans are 4.5-point home underdogs to the Chiefs, who could be -- not confirmed -- getting Patrick Mahomes back this week. If he is back, we should see the Chiefs leading this game, causing the Titans to turn to the passing game.
In his three games starting this season, Tannehill has posted six passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and passed for over 300 yards twice. All of that is good for 19 or more FanDuel points in each game, a number he can reach this week.
Running Back
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
FanDuel Price: $6,400
If you follow the NFL in any capacity, you should know the Chicago Bears are struggling and are spiraling downward.
The Chicago offense does not look good, and they shouldn't be attracting too much ownership this week as they hold a mere 22-point implied total against the Detroit Lions in a game in which the over/under is set at only 41.5. That over/under is the second-lowest on the slate, one which features three games set at 48 points or higher. Those games are where we should see the ownership flowing, leaving this game as a spot for some lower-owned tournament pivots. This is not saying you should be running towards this game for a full-on stack -- rather, find a key piece who offers fantasy value.
That piece is running back David Montgomery, who is coming off his best two games of the season.
In those two games, he has three rushing touchdowns, one game over 100 yards on the ground, and has seen nine targets in the passing game. All of this has Montgomery trending in the right direction, since those are the most targets he has in any two-game stretch this season, the first time he rushed for over 100 yards, and the most rushing attempts in that same time frame.
And it's a nice matchup versus the Lions, who are allowing a league-worst, 29.2 FanDuel points per game to running backs.
In all honesty, this has the makings of a classic NFC North game -- ugly, low-scoring, and cold weather. But that all plays into the hands of Montgomery.
Wide Receiver
Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams
FanDuel Price: $5,200
With Brandin Cooks already ruled out, Josh Reynolds should enter the starting lineup.
This is good news since we saw Reynolds perform well in LA's last game, when he played on a season-high 89% of the offensive snaps for the Los Angeles Rams after Cooks left early. In those snaps, he posted eight targets, hauling in three for 73 yards and one touchdown. All of that is a great indication of the production we could be seeing from him this week with Cooks out.
A middle-of-the-road matchup versus the Pittsburgh Steelers shouldn't see too many people rostering Reynolds, especially given the other players available around him. At $5.7K, Christian Kirk makes a great option versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At $5.5K, A.J. Brown could see a larger role in the passing game if Corey Davis sits. Calvin Ridley, at $5.3K, is always a threat for a long touchdown and is in a game with an over/under of 51 points. Finally, Chester Rogers, at $5.2K, should see a starting role with so many injuries for the Indianapolis Colts.
Tight End
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
FanDuel Price: $5,100
We all know that tight end can be a mess after we get away from the top few options, but Greg Olsen could crush this week.
Olsen holds a 16% share of the Carolina Panthers' total target share -- which is the fourth-highest on the team. That should be expected with the standard two wide receivers and then fantasy monster Christian McCaffrey ahead of him. But in two of the last three games for the Panthers, Olsen has finished third or higher in targets.
Hopefully this trend holds true this week, since he is up against the Green Bay Packers, who are allowing 11.7 FanDuel points per game to tight ends, the seventh-most in the league. Olsen also hasn't caught a touchdown since Week 3, and given his role in the passing game, he is potentially due for some positive regression in that area.
