4 NFL DraftKings Studs to Target in Week 12
Week 12 of the NFL season is here, so let's see which high-priced studs stand out on DraftKings and project to be high-end performers, according to our models.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
DraftKings Price: $5,900
Projected Points: 18.5
Remember when Baker Mayfield was 25/1 to win the MVP heading into the season? While he has been nowhere near an MVP candidate, he has picked it up over the last three weeks, racking up six touchdowns as opposed to just one turnover. For the season, Mayfield has scored over 17 DraftKings points in six of the ten games, including four with 19 or more. With his current momentum, Mayfield should continue to heat up as the Cleveland Browns are tied for the highest implied team total of Week 12 at 27.75.
The matchup for Mayfield and the Browns looks ripe for them to take advantage of against the Miami Dolphins. Miami currently ranks dead last in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) and opposing teams are averaging 30.5 points per game. Miami just gave up the massive ceiling game to Josh Allen last week when he dropped 33.8 DraftKings points, and are now tied for sixth in DraftKings points per game (22.6) to opposing quarterbacks. That number could be much higher, but they have faced off against some of the bottom quarterbacks in the league in Brian Hoyer, Sam Darnold, Mason Rudolph, and Case Keenum. Mayfield should be able to take advantage of this matchup, and put up a stat line we all expected would be his norm coming into the season.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
DraftKings Price: $8,200
Projected Points: 21.8
It was good to see Alvin Kamara reemerge last week to the role we fully expected, handling 23 touches while 43.5% of the touches came in the passing game which fits perfectly for DraftKings scoring. Sticking with his pass game involvement, Kamara has now seen seven or more targets in six of his eight games played and recently over the last two weeks has seen an absurd 25% target share. Kamara has performed best in his career while sharing duties with another back, and while the snap % split last week between him and Latavius Murray was 60/40, Kamara did out touch him 23 to 12. This week sets up nicely for Kamara to continue his success as the New Orleans Saints are now 8.5 point home favorites and are tied with the highest implied team total of the week against the Carolina Panthers.
Not only does Kamara have the right set up with the Saints being a big home favorite, but the matchup also looks to be very nice as Carolina is a run funnel defense, as they rank dead last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, while ranking fifth-best in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. The Panthers have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (15) and given up 28.6 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs. At 2.3K cheaper than Christian McCaffrey, Kamara with this matchup and game environment looks poised to perform as one of the best running back plays of the week.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns
DraftKings Price: $7,000
Projected Points: 16.7
Time to go all-in on the Browns this week! Odell Beckham has had a pretty vanilla season so far, just averaging 13 DraftKings points per game and having found the end zone just once. But the production at some point should regress to what the opportunity statistics are saying. On the season, Beckham is seeing a 26.1% target share and ranks eighth overall amongst all wide receivers in Air Yards. If we look a little closer, since Mayfield came out two weeks ago, and said they need to force-feed Beckham, OBJ has seen a 31.4% target share and ranks fourth in Air Yards. The good news for Beckham this week is that that matchup against Miami might finally bring that explosive game.
We already talked about how Miami ranks dead last in pass defense, and it is evident by some of the massive games they have given up to opposing number one wide receivers: John Brown 9/137/2 & 5/83/1, JuJu Smith-Schuster 5/103/1, Terry McLaurin 4/100/2, Amari Cooper 6/88/2, and Marquise Brown 5/147/2. Also, with the Browns owning such a high implied team total, our projections model has him as the receiver with the second-highest touchdown probability behind only Michael Thomas. This is the week Beckham either returns to his old form or we will have to just give up on him, I'd lean towards the former.
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings Price: $6,000
Projected Points: 15.2
Tight end is absolutely brutal this week yet again, and Zach Ertz stands head and shoulders above all other options this week. With the lack of depth and consistency that the Philadelphia Eagles have been dealing with at wide receiver, Ertz has seen a 27.8% target share over the last two games while averaging 23.4 DraftKings points. Now. this week, the Eagles are a small home favorite against the Seattle Seahawks and the game owns the second-highest total on the main slate.
Seattle has given up the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends so far this season. This game has a strong chance to be fast-paced, as the Eagles rank fifth in the NFL in plays per game (66.5) and the Seahawks rank seventh with 66.1. With the pace, the volume, and the matchup Ertz is in position to be the best tight end play of Week 12.
Adam Nessel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Nessel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ANessel01. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.