The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 12
A week ago, the masses went a solid 2-1 on their picks we discussed. The Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens failed to live up to the high-scoring hype of a 51.5-point over/under, but the Dallas Cowboys covered the spread and the New York Jets won in a minor upset over the Washington Redskins
This Sunday and Monday provide plenty more opportunities to get in on the action at FanDuel Sportsbook. On tap are another 10 games, including 11 with a spread shorter than seven points.
But which games and lines are getting the most action? Thanks to numberFire's new oddsFire tool, we can see exactly that -- where the public is laying the most bets, and what percentage of money is on which team and which side of the total.
Using oddsFire as our guide, let's dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public's heavy investment.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Washington Redskins
Like last week, the public is turning to a team that is rightfully favored on the road against a lesser opponent. Exactly 95% of the bets and 94% of the money is on the Detroit Lions. The only thing that's perplexing about it is that they are doing so with Detroit relying on their backup quarterback, Jeff Driskel, to get it done against Dwayne Haskins and Washington.
But Driskel has done enough for Detroit over the last two weeks. In that time, they have lost by seven on the road to the Chicago Bears and by eight at home against a high-powered Dallas Cowboys team. Per Killer Sports, they have failed to cover in both, but they have done so by just 0.5 and 1.5 points, respectively.
On the year, Detroit is 4-6 against the spread and 2-3 on the road. They tied and failed to cover in their only game as road favorites in Week 1 -- and that was with Matthew Stafford.
Meanwhile, Washington has also struggled to a 3-7 record versus the points. They are, however, 3-5 as underdogs -- a record that consists of a 1-4 mark on their home field.
With the Driskel-led Lions positioned 24th in our power rankings and Washington 31st, the 3.5-point spread looks about right. But with the way Driskel has played this bet is looking really good heading into the weekend.
Seattle Seahawks (+102) at Philadelphia Eagles
In what projects to be a higher-profile game in Philadelphia, the 8-2 Seattle Seahawks step into Lincoln Financial Field as 1.5-point underdogs. They opened at 2.5, so as that movement suggests all the love rests with Seattle. They have drawn 91% of the moneyline bets and 86% of the money on this game to date.
Seattle has lost a bit of value from where they were at to start (+115), but that can't even deter the betting public. After all, the 'Hawks have been the better team and check in a couple of spots ahead of the Eagles in our power rankings.
Russell Wilson and company have also been super-solid on the road against the spread. They are 4-0-1 in five matchups, winning by 6.6 points per game and taking all five straight up. They were underdogs in two of them and won both.
As for Carson Wentz and his crew, they are 3-2 overall at home and come off a loss to the New England Patriots. When favored by few or fewer, they are 1-1. Oh -- and they are dealing with injuries to Nelson Agholor and a key member of their line in tackle Lane Johnson.
The Seahawks are the better team and should not be getting points under the circumstances.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Under 38.5)
Yikes. This game has gross written all over it. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals are both on their second quarterbacks this year, and with James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster and others sidelined, this is shaping up to be a lower-scoring game in Cincinnati.
Since opening at 39.5, the total has been bet down by a full point at FanDuel Sportsbook. However, it's worth noting that it still sits at 39 or higher at other bookmakers, and that's something you could take advantage of on those sites.
Even at this number, 88% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the under. The public is not expecting anything great out of the AFC North foes, but what does pace have to say about? According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers and Bengals are 4th and 18th in seconds per play in neutral situations. If one or either quarterback can get it together, there is a path to a 20-point game on one side, and all you would need is 19 for the over to beat you.
Cincinnati has actually had the over hit in three of four games at home (the other was a push). They and their opponent average 53.3 points between them, and just last week Baltimore hung 49 and sent that one well past the 46-point total. The Steelers aren't the Ravens, though, and under Mason Rudolph, their games have failed to the total in six of eight contests. Given that, the public appears to be spot on again.
