NFL

3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 14

Matt Kupferle  —  @MKupferle Dec 6th, 2019

We have loads of pieces on numberFire dedicated to helping you figure out which plays you should target in your daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. And you should definitely check them all out!

But an underrated aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play. Narrowing down your short list of potential plays by avoiding those who are overpriced and/or in tough matchups goes a long way towards ensuring that you create optimal lineups.

Let's go through three guys to consider fading on this week's DFS main slates.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Price: $8,400
DraftKings Price: $6,600

Priced as the second-most expensive quarterback on the main slate, (behind only Lamar Jackson), Patrick Mahomes is often a lock to score big.

This week is going to be a challenge, though, as he's facing a New England Patriots defense that ranks as the league's best overall and second-best against the pass, per our numbers. While we still peg Mahomes for 21.9 points, third-best on the main slate, there's some risk to this number.

So how good is this Pats D? Well, in terms of Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, the Pats' D has posted a mark of -0.27 per drop back this year. That's right -- you lose about one-fourth of a point with every pass attempt against this group. The Patriots have yet to allow a 300-yard passer in 2019, and they have allowed only four signal callers to break the 200-yard mark.

With so many outstanding quarterback options available -- led by Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, and Sam Darnold -- it's just not worth spending up for Mahomes this week outside of GPPs lineups where you stack this game.

Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Price: $7,300
DraftKings Price: $7,900

With the Indianapolis Colts hitting the skids lately, it's no coincidence that it's occurred at the same time as Marlon Mack has been working through an injury.

Unfortunately, Week 14 may spell more of the same for Mack. While he has returned to practice, it couldn't come at a worse time in terms of opponent -- the Colts face the league's toughest rushing defense in Week 14 in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bucs have allowed only three opponents to hit the century mark in terms of rushing yards, and Indy sports a mediocre implied team total of 22.25 points.

Even if he's able to suit up, Mack looks like a risky play despite his affordable price point, especially since he thrives in positive game scripts and the Colts are road 'dogs.

Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Price: $7,400
DraftKings Price: $6,600

Kenny Golladay went nuts last week with 23.8 FanDuel points on four catches, 158 receiving yards and a score. But we shouldn't expect another big game in Week 14.

There are mismatches all around in this game -- starting with the Minnesota Vikings' 12th-ranked pass defense, which Golladay and the Detroit Lions face. Playing behind an O-Line that's allowed 31 sacks in 2019, David Blough could be running for his life against a Vikes D' line that ranks 11th in adjusted sack rate (7.7%).

Minnesota's D hasn't been at the same level they've been in previous years, they've allowed only two 300-yard passers. The Lions hold the second-lowest implied team total of the slate. If you're looking to roster a mid-priced receiver, players like Courtland Sutton and Mike Evans could be set up for far bigger afternoons.


Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.