NFL Draft Betting: How Many First-Round Quarterbacks Will Be Selected?
4.5. That's the magic number.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set the over/under of how many quarterbacks will get drafted in round one at that number. The under is listed at -380, which means it's considered about 79.2% likely to hit. At +270, the over is given just a 27% implied probability.
Nearly every year, quarterback is the most polarizing position in the draft -- especially once you get past the sure-fire high first-round prospects. So let's take a look at which side of the total the value lies on.
Looking at the history of the NFL draft, it's easy to see why the under is favored so heavily. Over the last 20 years, more than four quarterbacks have been taken in the first round of a draft just once. In fact, since 1983 -- the year Dan Marino, John Elway, and Jim Kelly were among six quarterbacks selected in round one -- just twice have five or more signal-callers heard their name called in the opening round. That's spanning 36 drafts.
Since 1999, the average number of passers drafted in round one is 2.8. All in all, there is little historical precedent to bet the over. But...does that mean there's no value there?
Current Draft Projections
Is there a glimmer of hope for the over? Well, according to NFLMockDraftDatabase, the consensus first round of nearly 300 aggregated mock drafts features four first-round quarterbacks in the first 14 picks -- that's a good start. That aligns with FanDuel Sportsbook, which has each of LSU's Joe Burrow (-3500 to go first overall), Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa (draft position over/under of 2.5), Oregon's Justin Herbert (5.5), and Utah State's Jordan Love (13.5) going in the first half of round one.
There are two questions to be asked here. First, will any of these quarterbacks fall? And if the answer is no -- will another signal-caller slide into the first round?
NFLMockDraftDatabase's consensus big board only features one other quarterback inside the top 60, and that's Washington's Jacob Eason (Rank: 42). Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts (65) and Georgia's Jake Fromm (76) round out the quarterbacks inside the top 100. For what it's worth, ESPN's Mel Kiper has Eason going in round one.
Based on the consensus opinion, I'd certainly take a straight-up wager against a fifth quarterback sneaking into the first round. But this isn't an outright bet. You're getting +270 to take the over here.
In my evaluation, I believe Eason has the tools for at least some team to want to snag him at the end of round one in order to secure that fifth-year option.
Given the odds, I'd take the over.