Fantasy Football: How High Should You Draft Tyreek Hill?
Coming off a disappointing statistical season in 2019, Tyreek Hill returns as one of the few players to be considered the top fantasy football wide receiver in the league. The Kansas City Chiefs' star wideout had a career-low in receptions and his lowest fantasy output since he was a rookie in 2016.
But Hill finished among the league-leaders in 2018. Following an ever-so-distant Super Bowl victory in 2019, can he reclaim fantasy dominance in 2020?
What's Hill's ADP Now?
Hill has been drafted on average the 10th pick off the board, per Fantasy Football Calculator, as a WR4 behind Michael Thomas (1.04), Davante Adams (1.07), DeAndre Hopkins (1.08), and ahead of Julio Jones (1.11).
Hill missed four games in 2019 but averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game in standard leagues and 15.7 in full-point PPR leagues. That was his lowest fantasy mark since his rookie season. He posted a career-low 58 receptions, 7 total touchdowns, and 8 rush attempts, exhibiting he wasn't utilized as much as in the past. Hill didn't receive as many deep targets with Patrick Mahomes' deep pass attempts decreasing and both players missing time in 2019.
Mahomes attempted 4.9 deep passes per game in 2019, a slight dip from 5.7 in 2018, directly affecting Hill's most lethal aspect of his game. Hill had 20 deep targets in 2019 (28th) and posted a 21.9% target share (26th) over the course of the season. Despite Hill's lower numbers, he recorded more than double Thomas' (9) but trailed the previously stated wide receivers in Jones (31), Hopkins (25), and Adams (23).
A Look Back at His Past
Hill has been a consistent top-10 fantasy wideout the past three seasons, and heading into 2020, nothing has changed besides a Super Bowl ring. In the Super Bowl, Hill caught 9 receptions for 105 yards on 16 targets, including the longest play of the game on a 44-yard catch. Hill only missed one game in his career (2017) before missing four in 2019 with a hamstring strain, so a fully healthy Hill should be atop of your fantasy boards.
| Year | Rec | Yds | Total TDs | Fantasy PPG Standard (Rank) | Fantasy PPG PPR (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 58 | 860 | 7 | 10.8 (10th) | 15.7 (12th) |
| 2018 | 87 | 1479 | 13 | 15.1 (1st) | 20.5 (3rd) |
| 2017 | 75 | 1183 | 7 | 11.0 (5th) | 16.0 (8th) |
| 2016 | 61 | 593 | 9 | 8.6 (20th) | 12.4 (33rd) |
In spite of his lower numbers in 2019, Hill posted 1.97 yards on target separation that ranked sixth in the league. He is a constant threat after the catch, ranking top 15 in two of four years in yards after the catch and top 25 the past three years in receiving touchdowns. Hill still has the game-changing ability to break any play open and be a multi-touchdown threat, ultimately putting him in the first round despite his lack of first-round production last season.
How Should You Value Him?
Hill is easily a top-10 WR in fantasy production, but how many other WRs should you take before him? New Orleans Saints wideout Michael Thomas is a no-brainer after his NFL-record 149 receptions, but are the other four head over heels better than Hill? The answer is no.
Hill had a true catch rate of 85.3% (25th) on 77.3% of his targets (68) being catchable, per PlayerProfiler. Hill is a reliable WR1, while Hopkins is in a new situation in Arizona and Jones' health is always being called into question, playing through an ankle, hip flexor, and shoulder sprain the past two seasons. In regards to scoring, Hill and Thomas have both scored 32 receiving touchdowns over the past four years, trailing Hopkins' 35 and Davante Adams' league-leading 40.
Hill holds a real value of becoming the top overall wideout in fantasy football, and he's certainly worth the top WR1 spot on any fantasy roster. If you're selecting between Adams, Hill, and Thomas, I'd consider Hill the WR2A to Adams' WR2B in 2020. If you're selecting the end of the first round or lucky enough for Hill to slip to you in the second round, scoop him up.
