NFL Betting: Which Team Will Have the Best Record in 2020?

Super Bowl odds has just about all you need to curb the appetites when it comes to NFL future betting, and one bet that really stands out to me is on the team with the best record at the end of the year.

The reason I like it is that there are a few obvious bets, of course, but there's some randomness to the NFL season to put it mildly, and any time we get a bet like this, it comes with long odds. That means it doesn't take a huge bet to hit it big. Also, the best record doesn't even mean the best team. It means the team with the most wins, so schedule comes into play here.

I went ahead and simulated the NFL season 10,000 times using expected team point differentials to see who topped the league most often.

The Betting Board

Here's a full rundown of the odds offered.

The Best Value

Dallas Cowboys (+1100)
The Dallas Cowboys have a lot of action on their win total over (-150 at 9.5 wins), and they have the second-easiest schedule in the league, based on preseason win totals and betting trends. Dallas ranks fifth in numberFire's initial data-driven power rankings and are projected for a 10.0-win season as a median outcome.

Last year, the Cowboys were a strange team, going only 8-8 despite ranking fifth in point differential (+113). The six other teams with a point differential of at least 100 were all 10-6 or better with an average of 12.3 wins. No team outperformed their posted best-record odds more frequently than Dallas.

Indianapolis Colts (+2000)
The Indianapolis Colts -- by far -- have the easiest schedule based on average opponent this year, and they should be rejuvenated after bringing in Philip Rivers. Our initial nERD projections pin the Colts as just an average team overall, but the schedule goes a long way, and the betting trends love the Colts so far. The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars are setting up as four potential wins, and their out-of-division schedule is soft.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1100)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 23rd in schedule strength, and other than their three combined meetings with the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs, it's real soft. They've obviously got a new quarterback at their disposal in Tom Brady, and they already were a positive team in point differential last year (+9) behind a top-four adjusted defense.

San Francisco 49ers (+700)
They'll have to buck the Super Bowl hangover, but the San Francisco 49ers have the 25th-toughest schedule and a mere four meetings with top-10 opponents based on preseason win totals. The 49ers will have to follow up a 13-win season with another outlier showing in order to cash in here, but they do sit in the same tier as the much pricer Baltimore Ravens (+420) and Chiefs (+420).

Buffalo Bills (+2200)
This one is a longer shot, sure, but the Buffalo Bills rate out as 1.19 points better than the league average in our initial power rankings. Baked into their schedule are four games against the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, and overall, they've got only two matchups with preseason top-10 opponents (the Chiefs and 49ers). They were top-eight in adjusted defense last year, and the schedule points to some legitimate value on a top-tier showing from Buffalo in 2020.