Is Michael Thomas Overvalued in Fantasy Football Drafts?
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas was the best fantasy wideout in 2019, and it wasn't close.
Thomas' 149 receptions for 1725 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns gave him 374.6 fantasy points in points per reception (PPR) leagues. That was 98.5 more points than the next closet receiver.
Since the year 2000, there have only been seven seasons where a wideout posted at least that many fantasy points. Antonio Brown was the only wide receiver to do it in back to back seasons in 2014 and 2015.
Thomas scored his fantasy points a bit differently than the other players that did it before him. He didn't have an extraordinary amount of touchdowns. He dominated because of his market share.
Thomas's 149 receptions were the most ever by any player in NFL history, and he did so by garnering a league-high 31.8% of the New Orleans Saints' targets.
While it is hard to argue that another wide receiver should be ranked over Thomas in fantasy football in 2020, there are reasons to be concerned that he won't be the league-winning difference-maker he was in 2019.
Targeting Wide Receivers
From 2006 through 2016, Drew Brees had been close to a lock to throw the ball 600-plus times each season. In those 11 seasons, he only failed to surpass that number twice while averaging 631.7 per season. However, that's changed quite a bit since 2017.
Over the last three seasons, New Orleans has averaged 545.3 passing attempts, which puts them right around the middle of the pack in the league. Among other factors, the decrease in pass attempts has led to them targeting receivers at one of the lowest rates in the league.
The table below shows how the Saints have been divvying up their targets to each position since Thomas has entered the league. Taysom Hill's numbers weren't included here because he's not classified as a receiver.
| Year | WR Targets |
WR Target Share |
RB Targets |
RB Target Share |
TE Targets |
TE Target Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 270 | 53.1% | 140 | 27.6% | 98 | 19.3% |
| 2018 | 265 | 55.8% | 125 | 26.3% | 85 | 17.9% |
| 2017 | 270 | 54.7% | 163 | 33.0% | 61 | 12.3% |
| 2016 | 375 | 59.1% | 147 | 23.2% | 112 | 17.7% |
The wideout target share has ranked bottom-10 in each of their three campaigns since 2017. Given the presence of Alvin Kamara, it makes sense that they've targeted running backs at one of the top rates in the league in each of those three seasons.
What's interesting is the large drop in the number of wide receiver targets since 2016 -- a season in which the Saints targeted the wide receiver position 105 times more than they did in any of the three following years. Only two teams targeted the position more often that season.
Those changes can, in large, be explained by a change in personnel, philosophy, and number of plays run. Trading Brandin Cooks and drafting Kamara resulted in an entirely different offense than what we were used to seeing. After averaging 1.74 passes for every run in 2016, that ratio dropped to 1.25 in 2017, 1.14 in 2018, and 1.50 in 2019. As for plays, the Saints ran 1,105 in 2016, and have averaged just 1,007 over the three seasons since.
Speaking of personnel, the Saints' receiving corps will have a different look in 2020.
The Addition of Emmanuel Sanders
Since 2017, the primary number-two wide receiver for the Saints offense has been deep threat speedster Ted Ginn Jr. New Orleans also drafted Tre'Quan Smith in 2018, but he has only totaled 661 yards in his two seasons in the NFL. As such, the Saints chose to go out this offseason and get a proven wide receiver to add to their offense.
Emmanuel Sanders received a $24 million, two-year contract from New Orleans, which is nothing to sneeze at. There is no doubt that he is going to be utilized in the offense -- the question is how much and what will it do to Thomas' market share?
The table below shows the breakdown of targets between Thomas and the team's number-two and three receiver (in terms of targets), as well as the targets spread out among the rest of the wideouts on the team.
| Year | Michael Thomas Targets |
Michael Thomas Target Share |
WR2 Targets |
WR2 Target Share |
WR3 Targets |
WR3 Target Share |
Other WR Targets |
Other WR Target Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 180 | 66.7% | 53 | 19.6% | 25 | 9.3% | 11 | 4.1% |
| 2018 | 146 | 55.1% | 43 | 16.2% | 29 | 10.9% | 47 | 17.7% |
| 2017 | 139 | 51.5% | 69 | 25.6% | 34 | 12.6% | 28 | 10.4% |
| 2016 | 119 | 31.7% | 113 | 30.1% | 96 | 25.6% | 47 | 12.5% |
Thomas' 66.7% target share among the receivers on his team is the largest target share we have seen for a wideout since 2016, and it isn't close. Keenan Allen was the next closet last year, claiming 50.5% of the Los Angeles Chargers' targets for the position.
Thomas' target share has continued to grow as the target share for the other wide receivers New Orleans has declined. In 2019, the team's number-two wideout saw the second-lowest share since 2016, while the number-three and remaining receivers hit their lowest marks over those four seasons.
A concerning takeaway from the table is the target share Thomas saw in 2016 when the Saints had another above-average wide receiver. Granted, Sanders is no Brandin Cooks, but the veteran has averaged 93.3 targets across the last three years. That average puts him not far from the number of targets Cooks had for the Saints in 2016.
Yes, 2016 was Thomas' rookie season, and he likely won't see just 31% of the receiver targets again, but there is concern for a potential dropoff.
Projection
numberFire's models project Thomas for 166.6 looks, while Sanders sees 95.2. That's very close to a 15-target drop for the 2019 receiving champion.
If the Saints pass-to-run ratio drops to 2017 or 2018 levels, or if the team decides to distribute their targets a bit more evenly among the rest of the team, that number could drop even more. Thomas could easily end up seeing closer to the 142.5 targets he averaged in the prior two seasons.
If we use numberFire's projected catch rate of 76% for Thomas on 142.5 targets, that leaves him with 108.4 receptions on the year -- he would already be down nearly 40 fantasy points in PPR before even taking into account the loss in yardage from fewer catches.
Michael Thomas currently has an average draft position of 5.08 in BestBall10s, but has also gone as high as the second pick in drafts. Taking Thomas before running backs like Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, or possibly even his teammate Alvin Kamara could be detrimental to your fantasy team.
In ESPN fantasy leagues in 2019, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Austin Ekeler were all on a larger percentage of fantasy playoff teams than Thomas -- who was at 61.5%. Running backs are the biggest difference-makers in fantasy football, and Thomas would have to be perfect for it to pay off drafting him before any of the top four or five running backs going into 2020.
The fact that 140 or so targets is the floor for Thomas is good enough reason to make him worth drafting in the first round of fantasy drafts this year. It is just important to remember that his 2019 season was historic and it is unlikely to happen again, especially given the addition of Sanders in 2020.
