NFL Betting Guide: Week 5
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Under 55.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
You all likely know that the Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the Las Vegas Raiders, their bitter division rival, for years. The Chiefs have won 12 of the past 14 in the series and are on a five-game winning streak. What is not as known, however, is that the under has performed very well in their recent matchups, particularly in the City of Fountains.
The under has gone 7-2 in their past nine meetings, with the under hitting by an average of 3.4 points. At Arrowhead, however, the under has gone a perfect 5-0, driven by the Chiefs' defense.
Kansas City has given up an average of just 11.4 points in those five home games, holding Las Vegas (then Oakland) to single-digit points in each of their past two in KC. The under has covered by an average of 7.6 points in those five games, which the Chiefs have won by an average of 17.6 points.
The under is 8-2 in the Chiefs' past 10 games as more than 10-point favorites, dating back to December 2014. This includes last week's win over the New England Patriots.
numberFire projects the Chiefs to win handily this week (though we do have the Raiders covering) in a game we give the under a 64.8% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $123.70 for every $100 wagered, we mark the under as a three-star play.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys -8.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Cowboys Moneyline (-390): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Another well-known rivalry will take place this week, though the matchup between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys in Jerry World doesn't quite have the same excitement as the Chiefs and Raiders.
The NFC East teams come into today's game with records of 0-4 and 1-3, respectively. While that doesn't seem like a TV-worthy affair, the Cowboys, at least, have been nothing short of entertaining. They come into this week's game with one of the league's most potent offenses.
The Cowboys are putting up a rather insane 509.5 yards of offense per game, an almost unbelievable 64.0 yards more than the second-place Green Bay Packers. The 2011 New Orleans Saints currently hold the yardage record at 467.1 per contest, so we should be expecting the Cowboys to fall back to earth eventually, but it's not going to be this week, according to our models.
Dallas has won six of their past seven home games against New York, outscoring the Giants by an average of 8.0 points. The Giants have lost by eight or more in three of their four games this season, and their anemic offense has put up just 11.8 points per game this season, 4.5 fewer points than their Meadowlands brethren, the New York Jets.
Teams are 0-6 straight up and 1-4-1 against the spread this season as underdogs of more than eight points. Our models see the Giants pushing those to 0-7 and 1-5-1 after a projected 11.2-point loss this week.
We give Dallas an 84.5% chance of winning and a 59.4% chance of covering the 8.5-point spread. We mark the bets as three- and two-star plays, respectively.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Under 51.5 4-Star Rating out of 5
You know, sometimes you have to scrap an entire piece. I was a couple paragraphs deep into writing about the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos' under last night when news came that the game had been moved to Monday, potentially making Cam Newton available, which caused the total to vanish. C'est la vie. Instead, I'll be highlighting the exciting matchup between the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers, everybody's most anticipated game this week.
The Niners are coming off a somewhat embarrassing loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, who are now shockingly first place in their division at 1-2-1 despite putting up the fifth-fewest yards and seventh-fewest points per game in the league this season. Of course, the Niners were starting Nick Mullens in place of Jimmy Garoppolo, who the team hopes will take the field this week.
The under is 3-1 in the Niners' past four games with totals set higher than 50 points. It's 0-2-2 in the Dolphins' past four such games. The under is 6-4 since the start of last year when the Dolphins are away. The under is 4-0-1 this season when away teams are underdogs of more than eight points, as Miami is this week.
numberFire's models project the teams to combine for 45.1 points this week in what we see to be an easy win for San Francisco. We give the under a 69.4% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $132.55 for every $100 wagered, we have the under marked as a four-star play.
