Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Who Can Prevail in the AFC Showdown?
This first game on the Monday Night Slate is gonna be a doozie. In a battle of 4-1 teams that are both inside the top-10 of our power rankings, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills could be previewing an early AFC Championship contest.
Let's dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
Points Could Reign Supreme in Buffalo
If there's been one consistent theme throughout the NFL season, it's been that points have been flying all over the place, and Monday should be no stranger to that trend.
If we look closely at our power ranks, it's easy to see why this bet makes sense, even with a hefty over/under set at 55.5 points. These are two top-3 offenses from our lens, and Buffalo's defense has been struggling as of late -- they were gashed a week ago for 42 points by the Tennessee Titans, but have also allowed 83 points in their three games prior to that contest.
The Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs are no strangers to points, either. While they were upset by the Las Vegas Raiders a week ago, don't ignore the fact that 72 points were scored in that game and the team has tallied 23 or more points in each of their 2020 contests.
If there is a warning sign here at all to consider, it comes in the form of situation-neutral pace. Kansas City is actually somewhat mediocre in this metric with a time of 26.75 seconds per play, but the Bills clock in at the bottom of the league with a mark of only 29.56 seconds.
Even with a lofty total, this seems like a solid play.
Bets to Consider
Despite bucking this trend a week ago, public money is gushing in on the road Chiefs -- 84% of bets and 86% of cash is coming in on the road favorite.
Our algorithm loves the Chiefs, too -- while the Westgate Sportsbook stills show the Chiefs at only 3.5-point favorites, a book like MGM has seen this rise all the way to the Chiefs sporting a 6.0-point spread. We like the Chiefs to win outright 62.2% of the time, but the spread makes this only a one-star bet in either direction.
One sneaky fun single-game parlay bet could be on the Chiefs, especially if you think this point scoring outburst continues. Pair the over/under or even the Chiefs spread with Mecole Hardman -- Sammy Watkins won't get his revenge game narrative, and Hardman has an over/under of 51.5 receiving yards this week. He's nabbed 10 targets over the last three weeks, including an 81-yard outburst just a few games ago.
Historical Betting Trends
-- If you bet on Kansas City against-the-spread (ATS), you made a lot of money in 2019. The Chiefs rocked a 13-5-1 mark, while the Bills weren't too shabby at 9-6-2.
-- The Chiefs have been downright absurd has road dogs -- they have gone 12-2 ATS in their last 14 contests.
-- The Bills like the over -- it's hit in each of their last five games.
-- Buffalo has not fared so well in this spot against Kansas City -- they are only 1-3 ATS in their last 4 head-to-head matchups.
