NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 7
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 7's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 0.00 | 7 | 42.5% | 1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.01 | 8 | 42.6% | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.02 | 9 | 43.6% | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.04 | 4 | 43.8% | 4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.03 | 5 | 44.5% | 5 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.04 | 11 | 44.5% | 6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -0.07 | 1 | 44.7% | 7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.01 | 6 | 45.1% | 8 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.04 | 2 | 45.3% | 9 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.08 | 12 | 46.0% | 10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.25 | 25 | 46.1% | 11 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.15 | 16 | 46.7% | 12 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.04 | 3 | 46.9% | 13 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.15 | 14 | 46.9% | 14 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.02 | 10 | 47.9% | 15 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.20 | 19 | 49.1% | 16 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.35 | 28 | 50.2% | 17 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.25 | 24 | 50.6% | 18 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.16 | 17 | 50.8% | 19 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.20 | 20 | 51.0% | 20 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.15 | 15 | 51.3% | 21 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.36 | 29 | 51.5% | 22 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.24 | 23 | 51.9% | 23 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.26 | 27 | 52.1% | 24 |
| New York Giants | 0.21 | 21 | 52.9% | 25 |
| New England Patriots | 0.09 | 13 | 53.1% | 26 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.19 | 18 | 53.5% | 27 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.22 | 22 | 54.5% | 28 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.38 | 32 | 54.5% | 29 |
| Houston Texans | 0.36 | 30 | 54.9% | 30 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.37 | 31 | 55.4% | 31 |
| New York Jets | 0.26 | 26 | 55.8% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.15 | 49.1% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.19 | 2 | 27.4% | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.20 | 1 | 29.8% | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.11 | 5 | 31.9% | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.08 | 6 | 33.5% | 4 |
| New York Jets | 0.03 | 17 | 36.3% | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.07 | 7 | 36.7% | 6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.02 | 11 | 38.4% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.01 | 12 | 38.5% | 8 |
| New York Giants | 0.02 | 15 | 39.0% | 9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.01 | 13 | 39.4% | 10 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.05 | 19 | 39.6% | 11 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.12 | 4 | 39.7% | 12 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.02 | 10 | 40.3% | 13 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.14 | 3 | 40.9% | 14 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.03 | 9 | 41.6% | 15 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.13 | 28 | 42.4% | 16 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.02 | 16 | 42.5% | 17 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.08 | 23 | 42.7% | 18 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -0.05 | 8 | 44.0% | 19 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.07 | 21 | 45.0% | 20 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.11 | 27 | 45.6% | 21 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.13 | 29 | 45.8% | 22 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.10 | 25 | 46.8% | 23 |
| Houston Texans | 0.20 | 32 | 47.1% | 24 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.10 | 24 | 47.6% | 25 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.08 | 22 | 48.0% | 26 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.18 | 30 | 48.3% | 27 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.02 | 14 | 48.5% | 28 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.04 | 18 | 49.4% | 29 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.19 | 31 | 50.0% | 30 |
| New England Patriots | 0.05 | 20 | 50.7% | 31 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.11 | 26 | 53.8% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.03 | 42.5% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 51.1% | 22 | 46.6% | 1 | 55.8% | 18 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 39.0% | 6 | 47.7% | 2 | 53.7% | 13 |
| Washington Football Team | 46.7% | 15 | 47.7% | 3 | 63.8% | 28 |
| Miami Dolphins | 58.1% | 30 | 50.0% | 4 | 54.5% | 15 |
| Chicago Bears | 30.2% | 1 | 50.7% | 5 | 50.9% | 6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 47.2% | 17 | 51.3% | 6 | 51.9% | 9 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 36.5% | 4 | 52.1% | 7 | 63.8% | 28 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 44.1% | 14 | 52.2% | 8 | 51.1% | 7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 51.5% | 24 | 52.9% | 9 | 38.9% | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 41.8% | 11 | 53.6% | 10 | 56.3% | 20 |
| Carolina Panthers | 56.3% | 29 | 55.0% | 11 | 50.0% | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 39.3% | 7 | 55.7% | 12 | 40.4% | 2 |
| Green Bay Packers | 66.7% | 32 | 55.9% | 13 | 60.7% | 27 |
| Buffalo Bills | 51.3% | 23 | 56.3% | 14 | 58.1% | 21 |
| Denver Broncos | 47.5% | 18 | 56.3% | 14 | 52.4% | 10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 35.5% | 3 | 56.5% | 16 | 60.0% | 24 |
| Detroit Lions | 41.0% | 9 | 56.6% | 17 | 51.7% | 8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 34.5% | 2 | 56.8% | 18 | 53.7% | 13 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 42.5% | 13 | 57.1% | 19 | 76.7% | 32 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 36.6% | 5 | 57.1% | 19 | 60.4% | 26 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 53.7% | 26 | 58.0% | 21 | 53.1% | 11 |
| Cleveland Browns | 46.7% | 15 | 58.5% | 22 | 53.3% | 12 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 47.5% | 19 | 58.9% | 23 | 56.1% | 19 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 50.8% | 21 | 59.5% | 24 | 64.3% | 31 |
| Tennessee Titans | 41.7% | 10 | 59.6% | 25 | 60.0% | 24 |
| New York Giants | 54.9% | 27 | 59.9% | 26 | 55.0% | 16 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 42.4% | 12 | 61.0% | 27 | 45.5% | 3 |
| New York Jets | 59.6% | 31 | 61.2% | 28 | 59.0% | 23 |
| New Orleans Saints | 55.3% | 28 | 61.3% | 29 | 58.2% | 22 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 50.0% | 20 | 61.7% | 30 | 55.6% | 17 |
| New England Patriots | 51.7% | 25 | 62.4% | 31 | 48.3% | 4 |
| Houston Texans | 39.5% | 8 | 65.2% | 32 | 64.2% | 30 |
| NFL Average | 46.8% | 56.2% | 55.6% |
