2020 NFL Power Rankings: Week 10
Five teams are coming off of a bye this week [puts finger to ear as if listening to breaking news]. Correction: I am being told that there were actually only four teams on a bye last week, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in fact play a game, despite all evidence to the contrary.
Let’s see how this week’s action shook up our rankings.
Risers and Fallers
Tampa Bay's “game” against the New Orleans Saints (I'm still not convinced it happened) dropped the Bucs’ nERD rating by 3.58 points and their ranking by four spots (from first to fifth this week).
Tom Brady posted the third-worst passer rating of his regular season career (40.4), as well as the lowest (by far) Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) of Week 9 (-18.91).
The Seattle Seahawks’ loss in their high-scoring matchup dropped them five spots, and their nERD rating dipped by 1.28 points.
The Saints’ dominant win over the Buccaneers vaulted them up our ranking nine spots to crack our top-10 (16th to 7th); it also secured them a 4.23-point jump in nERD rating.
Drew Brees’ four touchdown passes were the most he’s thrown since mid-December of last year.
Here are our Week 10 NFL Power Rankings:
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | New York Jets | -14.79 | 0-9 | 0.00% | 0 | 32 | 30 |
| 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -12.81 | 1-7 | 0.00% | 0 | 30 | 32 |
| 30 | Dallas Cowboys | -8.83 | 2-7 | 6.00% | 0 | 24 | 31 |
| 29 | New York Giants | -7.44 | 2-7 | 5.80% | 0 | 27 | 23 |
| 28 | Detroit Lions | -6.95 | 3-5 | 2.60% | -1 | 21 | 28 |
| 27 | Houston Texans | -5.72 | 2-6 | 4.30% | 1 | 17 | 29 |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | -4.63 | 3-5 | 2.50% | -4 | 31 | 8 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Bengals | -4.53 | 2-5-1 | 0.60% | 1 | 16 | 25 |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | -4.2 | 5-3 | 44.00% | 0 | 14 | 27 |
| 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | -3.94 | 3-4-1 | 70.10% | 0 | 28 | 13 |
There wasn’t much movement in the bottom-10 of our rankings from last week. The Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons more-or-less swapped rankings after their Week 9 contest where the Falcons won 34-27.
Denver’s passing offense hasn’t been very productive this season, ranking no better than 31st in Passing NEP since Week 1. And that’s not good when there are 32 teams.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Atlanta Falcons | -3.4 | 3-6 | 0.80% | 3 | 15 | 24 |
| 21 | New England Patriots | -2.32 | 3-5 | 6.00% | -3 | 23 | 14 |
| 20 | Washington Football Team | -1.71 | 2-6 | 18.40% | -1 | 26 | 11 |
| 19 | Las Vegas Raiders | -1.34 | 5-3 | 52.40% | -2 | 9 | 26 |
| 18 | Chicago Bears | -0.05 | 5-4 | 50.40% | -4 | 29 | 5 |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | 0.48 | 3-5 | 20.10% | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| 16 | Indianapolis Colts | 1.14 | 5-3 | 45.10% | -4 | 25 | 6 |
| 15 | Buffalo Bills | 1.22 | 7-2 | 85.80% | 5 | 4 | 22 |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.78 | 6-2 | 90.30% | -5 | 5 | 21 |
| 13 | Tennessee Titans | 2.1 | 6-2 | 85.60% | 2 | 7 | 20 |
Week 10 has two intra-division matchups for teams that have two things in common: they rank between 13th and 22nd and also have the smallest gap (this week) in their nERD ratings.
The Thursday night game in Tennessee between the Tennessee Titans (ranked 13th) and Indianapolis Colts (16th) fields two teams separated by 0.96 points in our nERD ratings. The Chicago Bears (ranked 18th) host the Minnesota Vikings (17th) on Monday night with a nERD gap of 0.53 points between the two teams.
At NFL odds, the Titans are favored by 1.5 points at home and the visiting Vikings are 2.5-point favorites.
The porous Seahawks' passing defense -- which ranks 27th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play heading into this week -- was just what Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills needed to get their passing game back on track.
In Allen’s first four games, he produced a Passing NEP of 75.13, ranking second only to Aaron Rodgers over that span. His next four games saw that total drop to 10.18 (22nd).
Allen’s Week 9 Passing NEP of 18.92 was good for third-best and put him back in line with his early season production.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Rank Change | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Carolina Panthers | 2.35 | 3-6 | 9.80% | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Chargers | 2.51 | 2-6 | 10.20% | -1 | 19 | 9 |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | 2.87 | 4-5 | 20.10% | -4 | 10 | 12 |
| 9 | Arizona Cardinals | 3.07 | 5-3 | 65.20% | -2 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Miami Dolphins | 3.65 | 5-3 | 66.20% | 0 | 22 | 4 |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | 5 | 6-2 | 95.40% | 9 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | 5.04 | 6-2 | 94.80% | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.4 | 6-3 | 79.10% | -4 | 20 | 2 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.66 | 8-0 | 99.60% | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 7.34 | 5-3 | 71.20% | 2 | 12 | 3 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 8.26 | 8-1 | 99.60% | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| 1 | Baltimore Ravens | 9.51 | 6-2 | 98.40% | 2 | 18 | 1 |
The Carolina Panthers hung close with Kansas City Chiefs and rose up to 12th in our rankings despite the loss.
Christian McCaffrey just got back on the field against the Chiefs after sitting out since Week 3, but it seems a shoulder injury may take him off of the field yet again.
The Miami Dolphins stand pat at eighth in our rankings after edging out the Arizona Cardinals, who will drop two spots to ninth.
Miami’s defense came up big again with a fumble return for a touchdown. Their Special Teams NEP of 39.58 leads the league after Week 9, with the Baltimore Ravens in a distant second of 28.63
The Ravens are back on top of our rankings, and while you may think that means Lamar Jackson and company are back to tearing up any and all defenses, that’s not the case. Baltimore ranks 18th in Adjusted Offensive NEP per play but is the top ranked team in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play.
