FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10
Welcome to our weekly FanDuel NFL primer, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research.
As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's daily fantasy tools at your disposal. In particular, our weekly projections can help you nail down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values, while the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals and every team's strengths and weaknesses.
Now, let's run through some of this week's top plays of the slate.
Kyler Murray ($8,800 on FanDuel): Rolling with high-salaried quarterbacks has really been the way to go this season, and the list of signal-callers who have cracked the FanDuel perfect lineup isn't particularly surprising: Russell Wilson (twice), Patrick Mahomes (twice), Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott (twice). Of those quarterbacks, only Herbert had a salary below $8,000. But a name that's curiously missing? Kyler Murray, who now leads all players with 30.1 FanDuel points per game. One can assume it's only a matter of time before he joins that group. Murray's coming off a 37.9-point performance against Miami -- a top-three overall defense in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings -- and now gets a far easier draw against Buffalo in what should be a high-scoring shootout (56.5 total).
Josh Allen ($8,700): Of course, with Murray and the Cardinals favored by a mere 2.5 points, we can also hop over to the other side of that game and roster Allen, Week 9's perfect-lineup quarterback. In fact, Murray and Allen are virtually tied for the most projected FanDuel points this week in numberFire's model. Last week broke a string of four straight games below 20 FanDuel points for Allen, but the Seahawks' shoddy defense has a way of doing that. While that inconsistency makes Allen a more shaky bet than Murray, the ceiling remains equally fantastic, as both players have three games exceeding 30 FanDuel points this year. Allen hasn't been as efficient on the ground in 2020, but only Lamar Jackson, Murray, and Cam Newton are averaging more rushes per game (7.2) among quarterbacks.
Jared Goff ($7,400): The second-highest total on the board belongs to the Seahawks-Rams game (54.5), and while we can certainly roster Russell Wilson ($8,900) as usual, Jared Goff is an intriguing value as the latest quarterback to get the weekly passing-game boost against the Seahawks. Seattle ranks 27th in adjusted pass defense, and given all their shootouts, it isn't surprising to see that they've also allowed the most FanDuel points per game to opposing signal-callers. With virtually no rushing upside, Goff will face an uphill battle to matchup the potentials of Murray, Allen, and Wilson, but we've seen him pop for big passing games before. Dating back to 2018, he's thrown for over 400 yards four times, including just last year when he threw for 517 yards against Tampa Bay.
Alvin Kamara ($9,000): Alvin Kamara doesn't get a particularly great matchup against San Francisco, which ranks fourth in adjusted run defense, but he gets most of his value through the air anyway. His 9.0 targets per game (25.3% share) bests all other running backs by a landslide, which has given him a rock-solid weekly floor that others at the position can't match. Unfortunately, Kamara's passing-game usage likely takes a slight hit moving forward with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders back, as he saw six targets (17.7%) in last week's game with all three together. Even with that being the case, he still easily projects for the most targets at the position, and only our next entry is projected for more FanDuel points.
Aaron Jones ($8,800): Last Thursday, Aaron Jones went from being a game-time decision with a potential "limited role" to seeing 15 carries and 5 targets with his second-highest snap rate of the year (60.6%). Shenanigans? Maybe, but we can be fully confident that he'll be good to go this time around, and the matchup sure is a good one against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are the worst overall defense in numberFire's rankings, and their adjusted run defense in particular sits at 29th. The Packers own the highest implied team total on the slate (31.75) as 13.5-point favorites. Jamaal Williams is back to steal away his share of snaps as usual, but we can still expect Jones to see roughly 20 or so opportunities, and the ceiling is what we saw in Week 2 versus Detroit. The running game may be a focal point in this game, too, as high winds are expected this weekend.
Duke Johnson ($5,800): Fill-in running backs could open up big value in Week 10, and Duke Johnson is one such backup who's trending towards getting a start with David Johnson still in the concussion protocol. David's injury last week opened the door for Duke, leading to 16 rushes and 4 targets on an 81.3% snap rate. We'll happily scoop up that volume in a potential back-and-forth game against Cleveland, which ranks 28th in adjusted rush defense. Note that this is another game where strong winds could be a factor. Another fill-in back, Chase Edmonds ($7,100), was mildly disappointing in Week 9, but the opportunities were there (25 carries, 3 targets), so he'll vault up the list if Kenyan Drake is ruled out again, too.
Mike Davis ($5,400): Right when we thought our time spent with Mike Davis had come to a close, Christian McCaffrey endures yet another injury, bringing Davis back into the DFS spotlight. His salary has reverted to that of a backup, easily putting him on the map as the top projected point-per-dollar running back on the board. In his six starts in place of McCaffrey, Davis has averaged 13.8 rushes and 5.8 targets per game. The only downside is his matchup against Tampa Bay, which ranks as the second-best adjusted run defense. While that doesn't bode well for traditional runners, the Bucs are regularly attacked by opposing backfields through the passing game, as they've allowed the second-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to the position. Davis himself racked up 8 catches and 74 receiving yards in essentially one quarter against them in Week 2.
Davante Adams ($9,500): In his five full games, Davante Adams has averaged 13.2 targets per game with a 38.2% target share and 48.4% air yards share. He now faces the 30th-ranked adjusted pass defense. Windy conditions and/or a blowout might be the only things that slows Adams down this week, but if Green Bay is putting up points, chances are he's a huge reason why they get there.
Stefon Diggs ($7,900) and John Brown ($5,600): If we're rostering Josh Allen, we're obviously going to want his top pass-catchers, too. Stefon Diggs could get the shadow treatment from Patrick Peterson, but his usage has been truly elite, as he's averaging the third-most targets per game in the NFL (10.1) with a 30.6% target share and 40.7% air yards share. Plus, Peterson may not be as much of a shy-away matchup as years past. Meanwhile, John Brown has been inconsistent this year, but he looks to be healthy after logging 11 targets in Week 9 and gives us an inexpensive way to gain exposure in tournaments.
Cooper Kupp ($7,700) and Robert Woods ($7,200): Cooper Kupp had a 20-target (!!) game prior to the Rams' bye week, so he will almost certainly be the most popular way for gamers to attack the Seahawks' awful pass defense. As you likely know by now, they're getting roasted by opposing wideouts by far and away the most FanDuel points per game. Kupp is averaging 8.9 targets per game (25.3%) compared to Robert Woods' 6.8 (20.4%), making him the safer play. And yet, Woods is averaging more FanDuel points per game due to his six touchdowns to Kupps' two. That's no accident, as Woods leads the team in red-zone targets (seven) and also has three red zone carries, with two of his six scores coming on the ground. As the lower-salaried and likely less-rostered option, Woods could be the preferred choice in GPPs.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,800): The Broncos-Raiders game won't get as much attention as Bills-Cardinals or Rams-Seahawks, but it actually has the third-highest total at 50.5. Jerry Jeudy is coming off his best game of the season (22.0 FanDuel points) after capitalizing on a soft matchup against Atlanta. Jeudy has now seen 14 and 10 targets in the last two games and leads all players in air yards over that span (355) -- just ahead of Tyreek Hill and well above anyone else. Las Vegas is 25th in adjusted pass defense, so Jeudy has a golden opportunity to build off last week's success. As of this writing, he's the top wideout value in our projections.
Darren Waller ($7,000): With Travis Kelce on bye, Darren Waller has a massive leg up on the competition at tight end, projecting as the best option by a wide, wide margin. While Denver has a solid defense, they rank just 27th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends. Waller is averaging 9.0 targets per game, which is tops at the position.
Austin Hooper ($5,100): Austin Hooper returns after missing two games recovering from appendicitis, giving us a fantastic salary-saving option. Houston is not only 26th in adjusted passed defense, and they also rank 30th in Target Success Rate allowed to the tight ends. In the three games prior to his layoff, Hooper tallied 6, 10, and 7 targets, and that was before Odell Beckham was lost for the season.
Pittsburgh D/ST ($5,000): The Steelers' defense was a bit of a disappointment against the Cowboys, but they're in another good spot this week against the Bengals. While Joe Burrow is obviously a big step up in competition, he's also thrown the third-most pass attempts in the league, with only Dallas attempting more passes per game than Cincinnati. That's contributed to Burrow being tied for the second-most sacks in the league (28) and tied for the most fumbles (8). With Pittsburgh favored by 6.5 points at home, they should have plenty of opportunities to accumulate sacks and turnovers if things go more according to script this time around.
Philadelphia D/ST ($4,600) and New York Giants D/ST ($3,900): These defensive units get to face two of the most turnover-prone and sacked quarterbacks of 2020 in the same game. Daniel Jones has tallied 28 sacks (second-most), 9 interceptions (third-most), and 7 fumbles (second-most), and Carson Wentz has piled up 32 sacks (most), 12 picks (most), and 7 fumbles (second-most). Both defenses project as the best values in numberFire's model, with the cheaper Giants getting the overall top nod.