NFL

Daily Fantasy Football Range-of-Outcome Projections: Week 10

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
25+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Kyler Murray $8,800 23.62.6818.628.743.6%1.67
Josh Allen $8,700 22.92.6417.928.239.8%1.44
Russell Wilson $8,900 21.52.4116.227.034.2%0.84
Deshaun Watson $8,300 20.32.4515.726.329.0%1.01
Aaron Rodgers $8,400 19.72.3414.324.724.2%0.63
Justin Herbert $8,000 19.52.4413.624.623.8%0.81
Jared Goff $7,400 18.62.5213.424.122.0%1.04
Drew Brees $7,600 18.62.4413.924.322.2%0.99
Matthew Stafford $7,300 18.42.5212.623.618.8%1.04
Tom Brady $7,800 18.12.3212.723.419.3%0.69
Derek Carr $6,900 18.02.6012.823.820.3%1.24
Teddy Bridgewater $7,000 17.82.5512.322.816.4%1.03
Tua Tagovailoa $6,800 17.52.5711.722.115.7%1.03
Carson Wentz $7,500 17.12.2812.221.915.1%0.56
Joe Burrow $7,200 16.82.3411.621.713.4%0.68
Drew Lock $7,100 16.82.3611.222.516.1%0.77
Ben Roethlisberger $7,400 16.72.2612.022.416.5%0.67
Daniel Jones $6,700 15.82.3611.020.610.5%0.76
Baker Mayfield $7,000 15.62.2210.421.412.7%0.66
Alex Smith $6,500 15.52.3810.120.810.2%0.78
Nick Mullens $6,600 15.52.3510.220.510.7%0.73
Jake Luton $6,700 14.02.099.218.87.5%0.43


Observations:

Ah, we know the drill by now, right? The high-salaried quarterbacks this year have had the best median outcomes and ceilings just about every week. We should expect that, yes, but in years past, matchups for lower-salaried plays were more enticing. The historical range of outcomes still say to trust the studs, especially when they're in good spots. The matchup between Kyler Murray and Josh Allen is around 25.6% likely to feature the main slate's QB1.

The important thing to keep in mind is that there is rarely significant leverage at the quarterback position. Since 2016, only 22 quarterbacks have been rostered on at least 20% of Sunday Million lineups on FanDuel, less than 0.3 per week. That said, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson are very close to Murray's and Allen's projected ranges and are the best places to swap.

Now, if looking to save salary, three quarterbacks pop: Jared Goff, Drew Brees, and Matthew Stafford, all between $7,300 and $7,600. They all have 75th-percentiles of at least 23.6 points would help with salary relief. Tom Brady is also a fun bounce-back candidate.

Derek Carr is once again a good per-dollar value but generally is not that appealing to me due to ceiling.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
20+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Alvin Kamara $9,000 19.72.1913.925.448.5%2.54
Aaron Jones $8,800 19.62.2313.624.748.1%2.52
Josh Jacobs $7,500 15.52.069.521.230.1%1.72
James Conner $7,600 15.42.0210.420.627.9%1.68
Miles Sanders $7,700 15.21.989.821.129.8%1.51
James Robinson $7,300 15.02.059.420.627.4%1.65
Nick Chubb $8,200 13.51.658.719.020.5%0.84
Giovani Bernard $6,200 13.22.137.818.017.7%1.71
Mike Davis $5,400 12.42.317.217.716.7%2.05
D'Andre Swift $6,000 12.32.047.116.812.2%1.60
Antonio Gibson $6,100 12.11.986.917.014.8%1.41
Chase Edmonds $7,100 12.11.707.017.415.9%0.90
Leonard Fournette $6,400 11.51.796.515.910.1%1.02
Kareem Hunt $7,500 11.31.506.416.311.2%0.60
Ronald Jones $6,400 11.21.746.515.912.5%1.00
Melvin Gordon $6,600 10.71.625.715.58.8%0.77
Jerick McKinnon $5,500 10.61.936.015.58.9%1.33
Darrell Henderson $5,800 10.11.744.915.29.5%1.00
Jamaal Williams $5,600 9.01.604.813.33.8%0.80
Devin Singletary $5,600 8.91.584.712.92.7%0.75
Duke Johnson $5,800 8.01.374.312.11.9%0.53
Matt Breida $4,600 7.81.693.911.31.2%0.92
J.D. McKissic $5,300 7.71.454.011.41.8%0.59
Phillip Lindsay $5,900 7.61.293.811.41.6%0.38
Latavius Murray $5,000 7.41.473.910.50.4%0.54
Joshua Kelley $5,200 7.31.413.910.70.6%0.51
Malcolm Brown $5,500 7.31.323.810.70.3%0.41
Chris Carson $7,800 7.20.933.610.71.0%0.06
Adrian Peterson $5,200 6.91.333.610.51.1%0.45
David Johnson $6,300 6.81.083.49.90.7%0.15
Kenyan Drake $6,000 6.71.123.510.50.4%0.25
Wayne Gallman $5,700 6.71.173.310.10.3%0.28
Jordan Howard $5,200 6.61.283.210.30.8%0.41
Zack Moss $5,800 6.51.123.19.60.3%0.22
Kalen Ballage $5,300 6.31.183.39.40.1%0.27
JaMycal Hasty $5,100 6.01.172.99.00.1%0.27
Troymaine Pope $4,500 5.81.303.19.10.0%0.46
Travis Homer $5,300 5.61.062.78.60.0%0.17


Observations:

We have two core plays at running back with Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones, and yes, I said core plays. The value at running back is appealing, but check out the odds that those backs get to 20 FanDuel points. Kamara (48.5%) and Jones (48.1%) are close to coin flips. No back below $7,000 is even 18.0% likely to do that. It's just pretty impossible to match the ceilings from feature backs such as Kamara and Jones.

The projections rate Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, James Conner, and James Robinson similarly, but the standout is Sanders, given the anticipated workload. Jacobs burned us last week but isn't on the injury report this week after being a mid-week addition for Week 9. I won't roster James Conner as a favorite and am more inclined to trust the snap rate and workload of James Robinson even as an underdog.

Then we get to the value backs: Giovani Bernard, Mike Davis, Antonio Gibson, Ronald Jones, D'Andre Swift, Darrell Henderson, and Jerick McKinnon. The list is long, but they all have similar issues: they aren't three-down backs. The one who is (Davis) faces the stone worst matchup possible with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Davis trended downward toward the end of his stint as the Carolina Panthers' starter.

Kamara, Jones, and Sanders still deserve to be in the majority of lineups this week in some form or fashion.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
20+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Davante Adams $9,500 17.61.8512.722.535.4%1.31
DeAndre Hopkins $8,600 17.11.9913.021.332.9%2.07
Michael Thomas $8,500 16.11.8911.620.226.2%1.40
Stefon Diggs $7,900 15.51.968.621.430.1%1.39
D.K. Metcalf $8,300 15.11.828.921.630.0%1.13
Keenan Allen $7,800 14.71.889.919.020.8%1.27
Cooper Kupp $7,700 14.41.8610.119.121.6%1.29
Terry McLaurin $7,000 14.22.029.219.522.9%1.65
Robert Woods $7,200 14.11.969.718.519.0%1.52
Tyler Lockett $7,400 13.71.857.220.225.5%1.10
Robby Anderson $6,400 12.71.987.218.619.5%1.39
Curtis Samuel $5,700 12.02.116.916.29.7%1.63
DeVante Parker $6,000 11.81.965.516.814.1%1.28
Jerry Jeudy $5,800 11.82.035.218.118.8%1.38
Will Fuller $7,100 11.71.655.118.220.0%0.89
Tyler Boyd $6,700 11.51.716.915.79.6%0.90
D.J. Moore $6,900 11.41.665.218.218.4%0.86
Chris Godwin $7,500 11.11.486.915.48.2%0.52
Mike Williams $5,900 11.11.874.517.216.6%1.11
Brandin Cooks $6,300 10.81.715.415.710.7%0.90
Tee Higgins $6,100 10.71.754.516.315.0%0.99
Marvin Jones $6,200 10.51.705.114.98.2%0.88
Travis Fulgham $6,800 10.31.514.316.816.2%0.75
Diontae Johnson $5,700 10.21.785.513.96.2%1.01
D.J. Chark $6,600 10.11.544.616.115.5%0.76
Jarvis Landry $6,000 10.01.665.514.36.6%0.86
Brandon Aiyuk $6,500 9.91.524.714.99.0%0.67
Antonio Brown $6,500 9.81.513.415.911.9%0.73
Chase Claypool $6,100 9.61.573.316.213.4%0.81
JuJu Smith-Schuster $6,400 9.61.495.513.55.5%0.60
Darius Slayton $5,900 9.21.563.415.110.3%0.77
Tim Patrick $5,500 9.11.653.514.811.6%0.92
Mike Evans $7,300 9.01.233.913.46.5%0.32
Christian Kirk $6,300 8.91.423.314.69.8%0.65
Cole Beasley $5,400 8.91.644.613.13.1%0.79
Sterling Shepard $5,500 8.71.584.513.12.9%0.76
Danny Amendola $5,200 8.71.674.312.52.4%0.86
John Brown $5,600 8.41.502.914.48.6%0.76
A.J. Green $5,600 8.11.452.713.16.7%0.66
Randall Cobb $5,100 8.11.584.711.61.9%0.71
Emmanuel Sanders $5,800 8.01.374.311.90.9%0.48
Richie James $5,400 7.81.453.111.83.4%0.60
Hunter Renfrow $4,900 7.81.593.012.14.1%0.81
Henry Ruggs $5,600 7.41.321.713.26.1%0.59
Laviska Shenault $5,200 7.31.403.611.00.8%0.53
Jakeem Grant $4,600 7.31.583.510.80.9%0.75
Larry Fitzgerald $5,000 7.11.433.910.80.8%0.55
Jalen Reagor $5,600 7.11.272.211.84.1%0.50
Kenny Golladay $7,000 6.60.952.012.13.7%0.27
Josh Reynolds $5,000 6.51.291.810.91.7%0.51
Keelan Cole $5,100 6.31.241.811.42.6%0.51
Nelson Agholor $5,100 6.31.231.511.21.9%0.52
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $5,500 6.21.131.210.82.9%0.39
Rashard Higgins $5,500 6.21.131.810.21.7%0.33


Observations:

We'll have to key in on how the trend goes by Sunday. There are a ton of value backs who are in play, so the high-salaried receivers are attainable. That being said, the priority for me would be the high-salaried running backs. (Remember that Kamara and Jones are just under 50.0% likely to hit 20 FanDuel points; no receiver is above a 35.4% chance. We just know from a huge sample that the better FanDuel investment is the running backs.)

The best floor/ceiling ratings belong to DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Robert Woods, none of whom I love personally, but I'm just here to let you know what the data says. I'd rather shift to Robby Anderson, Jerry Jeudy, DeVante Parker, Brandin Cooks, and John Brown.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
15+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Darren Waller $7,000 12.51.797.917.235.1%1.09
Evan Engram $5,600 8.91.604.713.014.8%0.78
T.J. Hockenson $6,200 8.81.425.112.215.3%0.45
Dallas Goedert $5,800 8.71.504.812.614.1%0.61
Austin Hooper $5,100 8.41.654.312.515.5%0.88
Noah Fant $5,700 7.91.383.712.312.7%0.53
Rob Gronkowski $6,100 7.81.283.811.912.1%0.40
Hunter Henry $5,500 7.41.343.611.69.8%0.50
Eric Ebron $5,400 7.11.313.610.77.4%0.42
Jordan Reed $5,000 6.81.373.510.36.4%0.49
Jared Cook $6,000 6.51.083.110.15.3%0.21
Mike Gesicki $5,300 6.41.212.110.99.9%0.45
Logan Thomas $4,900 6.41.302.99.85.6%0.42
Robert Tonyan $5,700 6.01.052.89.33.8%0.20
Tyler Higbee $5,200 5.71.102.49.23.0%0.28
Tyler Eifert $4,600 5.51.192.68.51.7%0.32
Greg Olsen $4,600 5.41.182.38.20.6%0.27
Jordan Akins $4,900 5.31.082.08.21.9%0.23
Harrison Bryant $4,800 4.81.012.07.91.1%0.18
Gerald Everett $4,500 4.71.052.07.60.4%0.23
Darren Fells $5,000 4.40.881.66.90.1%0.08
David Njoku $4,800 4.10.861.66.20.1%0.05
Dawson Knox $4,500 4.10.911.56.30.0%0.12
Drew Sample $4,400 4.00.911.66.50.1%0.12


Observations:

Darren Waller is the lone stud tight end on the main slate but has a salary of $7,000, a number that puts him out of priority territory given the state of quarterback, receiver, and running back.

The more appealing value comes from the more reasonable $5,000 range: Austin Hooper without Odell Beckham, Evan Engram with a recent resurgence, Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Hunter Henry, and even Mike Gesicki.