Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Can the Reeling Bears Right the Ship?
Two teams sandwiched right next to each other in the power rankings square off this evening, as the Minnesota Vikings -- who have been far better in recent weeks -- tackle the Chicago Bears tonight in Chicago.
The Bears have lost three in a row and are actually the underdog at home this evening, a far cry from their white-hot 5-1 start.
Let's dive into what our models think could be some intriguing betting angles for this contest.
A Slight Lean to the Home Team
Similar to the NFC East, the NFC North is in a bit of a struggle. While the Green Bay Packers seem to be making some space at the top, there is a bit of a logjam behind them, and this game could go a long way to determining a Wild Card spot.
The Bears' major problem has been on the offensive side of the ball. Replacing signal-caller Mitchell Trubisky with Nick Foles has not seemed to move the needle too much. The Bears are sadly only averaging a little under 17 points-per-game over their last three contests, ranking fourth-worst in average points-per-game.
Foles has struggled to stay upright -- in those games, he's been sacked a whopping 12 times. As we pivot to a team like the Vikings, they were downright brutal to start the year, but are now 4-1 ATS in their last five contests. Largely, Dalvin Cook can be thanked for the resurgence -- including a monster 206-yard rushing performance last week. Dude is ballin'.
With David Montgomery out, it will likely be up to Foles and wide receiver Allen Robinson to carry the load. If Foles can get going, our algorithm loves the home Bears at +3.5, making it a three-star bet. Interestingly, the money has been pretty evenly split, with 50% of bets and 49% of the money coming in on the road Vikings, per oddsFire.
Bets to Consider
This is definitely a tough game -- our models like the home Bears to win straight up at 50.5% of the time. From a spread perspective, this one seems a bit more sure, as we see the Bears covering the hook on that extra half-point 63.64% of the time.
The over/under (44.0 points) seems to be a shaky bet for over bettors. We see that bet hitting only 53.64% of the time.
Given this potentially low-scoring environment, the under seems like a safe bet, but things could get interesting with Montgomery out and a heavy passing attack likely. A week ago, Robinson and Darnell Mooney combined for 20 targets, which becomes a tasty option against the Vikings' middling pass defense. Looking at their receiving yard props, both Robinson (72.5) and Mooney (41.5) Over, seem like decent bets on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Historical Betting Trends
-- There are definitely some unique trends that are bashing up against each other. In their last six games, Minnesota is 5-1 against-the-spread (ATS).
-- However, the Bears have performed really well as a home underdog. Over their last 18 contests, they are rocking a 13-4-1 mark.
-- Can you count on the under? In the last 17 clashes between these two NFC North teams, the under has hit 12 times.