Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned in Week 14

Perhaps more than anything, fantasy football is a game of adjustments. Season-long fantasy doesn't end at the draft, and smart managers learn to take the trends and data that each week of games offers and apply it to their roster decisions moving forward.

This weekly piece will look at trends from the previous slate of games and determine which trends in snaps, usage, and matchups are actionable moving forward.

Hurts > Wentz

No one will blame you if you didn't pick up Jalen Hurts to start in your first round fantasy playoff matchup. He was facing a New Orleans Saints defense that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and ranks fourth-best in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, by our metrics. If that wasn't enough, the Saints had allowed quarterbacks to rush for less than 100 yards against them all season entering Week 14.

But then Hurts went nuclear and launched Carson Wentz into the stratosphere of irrelevancy. He is the primary waiver wire add this week if you are quarterback desperate or are currently relying on someone like Kirk Cousins (who faces the Chicago Bears in Week 15) or Deshaun Watson (on the road against the Indianapolis Colts with possibly no NFL-caliber receivers).

Hurts rated just mediocre as a passer on Sunday. His Passing NEP per drop back is 0.16 -- or the same as Matt Ryan-- but he took off for 18 rushing attempts (14 designed run plays) for a gargantuan 106 yards, or 5.89 per attempt. Not only were his 18 rush attempts a season-high for all quarterbacks, but he is one of only three players (with Lamar Jackson and Tim Tebow) to reach that number of attempts since the year 2000.

In the next two games of the fantasy playoffs, Hurts and the Eagles play the Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys, both in the bottom-eight in terms of most rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. Hurts has the potential to run wild against these teams while also having a full stable of pass-catchers at his disposal.

This is very much a don't-let-the-door-hit-you-on-the-way-out situation for Carson Wentz, and it will be fascinating to see what the Eagles try to do with that contract. But for now, let's just sit back and enjoy the ride with Hurts.

Akers Mea Culpa

In this space last week, I argued for pumping the brakes on Cam Akers, looking at the fact that Darrell Henderson got banged up in Week 13 and the Los Angeles Rams love to employ a running back committee. Henderson is Pro Football Focus' sixth-highest graded halfback and ranks 17th among all backs with at least 100 rush attempts in Rushing NEP per carry. Both numbers were considerably better than Akers entering Week 14.

Let's just say that prediction didn't turn out so well.

Akers led all rushers with 29 attempts in Week 14, a number that had previously only been matched by Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Josh Jacobs this season. In addition to his 171 rushing yards, Akers also chipped in with 3 targets and 23 receiving yards, giving him over 21 fantasy points in points-per-reception (PPR) scoring.

We do still have to manage the coach-speak coming out of their game against the New England Patriots as Sean McVay says he plans to continue to use a committee at the position. But after this type of performance against a team that is a top-12 defense by our expected points metric, it would be ludicrous to not give Akers the lions' share of the workload going forward.

It would make sense, one might think, to transition Henderson more of a third-down role, as he is averaging 10.3 yards per reception this season. But that overlooks the fact that Akers' NEP per target (0.77) is significantly higher than Henderson's (0.47) on the season. Put all of it together, plus a greater share of the snap rate and Akers is, in fact, finally free.

Elliott and Jones Can't be Counted on as RB1s

Just when you needed them most, both Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Jones finished outside the top 30 at running back in Week 14, likely sinking the managers who might have made it that far despite their inconsistencies in 2020.

On the season, both Jones and Elliott have finished in the top-10 in half-point per reception scoring just 4 times in 13 games. As consensus top-10 running backs, we expect more production than this, especially at this point of the season. The truth is, however, that Elliott has more finishes outside the top-25 (6) as he does inside the top-10 (4). Jones missed two weeks with an injury and also has finished outside the top-25 twice.

It's a tale of two team contexts with Jones and Elliott.

For the Green Bay Packers, they continue to give Jamaal Williams snaps, and he has been on the field for at least 30% of the Packers' offensive plays in every game this year. Even with Jones clearly showing he is the more dynamic player and dominant touchdown-scorer, his snap share on the season sits at only 59%, while Williams comes in at 50%. The Packers show no sign of giving Jones a Dalvin Cook-like role, and expectations should be adjusted to match that reality.

For the Cowboys, they have to contend with the fact that Elliott is just not right this year. You can blame it on the depleted offensive line, the absence of Dak Prescott, or the wear his body has endured in his first three years in the league -- but something is up. Among backs with at least 100 carries this year, Elliott ranks 29th in Rushing NEP per carry. This puts him behind players like Devin Singletary, Melvin Gordon, and Todd Gurley in efficiency.

In Week 14, Elliott saw his second-lowest snap share of the season (63%), while backup Tony Pollard benefitted with his highest rushing share of the season (44%). With matchups against the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles the next two weeks (both top-10 run defenses), Elliott managers need to give serious thought to making alternate arrangements.