4 NFL FanDuel Studs to Target in Week 16

Spending your available salary in any DFS lineup on a stud can make or break your lineup. These high salary players will take up the majority of your budget, so it’s critical to carefully consider which ones you’ll want for each slate. Whether it’s trying to capture a safe floor in a cash game or chasing a huge game to help you win a tournament, nailing the expensive players is one of the keys to making winning NFL lineups on FanDuel.

There are only ten games on the main slate for the penultimate week of the 2020 regular season, but there are still some studs we can roster. Let’s look at one from each skill position that we can target in Week 16.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $9,400
Projected Points: 25.3

It's been another banner year for Patrick Mahomes, dominating in real life and in fantasy football.

He leads the league in passing yards by over 300 and is the fantasy QB2 on the season. He has been the most efficient quarterback in the league, leading in numberFire's Passing Net Expected Points per drop back metric with 0.35, much better than the league average of 0.13. Mahomes is a player you can fire up every week, and this week he can be made a priority.

Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are at home against the Atlanta Falcons. The spot doesn't get much better, with the Falcons being the team that has allowed the most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Reference.

When you look at our daily fantasy matchup heat map, you can see that the Chiefs have by far the highest implied team total on the slate at 32 points. The 10.5-point spread is one that suggests Kansas City won't need to be passing too much, but Mahomes did throw 42 times and for 5 touchdowns against the New York Jets earlier this season when KC was an even larger favorite. The Chiefs also have a 1.57 pass/run ratio this season, so they do prefer passing in most situations anyway.

Mahomes is the highest projected quarterback this week, projecting at least a point higher than anyone else at the position. The floor/ceiling combination in this matchup is massive, so getting him into lineups could be one of the keys to winning on the Week 16 main slate.

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

FanDuel Salary: $7,800
Projected Points: 16.2

Many in the fantasy football community had negative things to say about David Montgomery, myself included. It was mostly justified as Montgomery had just one 20-point FanDuel outing before Week 9.

He returned from a concussion and a bye week in Week 12 and has become a different player. He has over 20 points in each of the four games since then and is the RB2 in half-PPR scoring over that span. The only hole you can poke in his recent results is a weak schedule of opposing run defenses, but that won't be a problem this week.

The Chicago Bears are on the road this week against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have allowed big games to Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Nick Chubb in recent weeks, and overall this season, they've allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs. They also rank 25th against the run, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. With the Bears being 7.5-point favorites in this game, they should be running the ball a lot, so Montgomery should be able to eat as he has been doing for the last four games.

Montgomery is our highest projected running back on this slate, something that would have shocked most fantasy players a month ago. He is projected for more points than Chubb but comes at a $1,200 salary discount, making him a pretty good value despite the relatively high salary.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: $8,700
Projected Points: 13.8

Experiencing a third-year breakout season, Calvin Ridley has stepped up his play this season. He's been the WR6 in FanDuel scoring and has been even better when Julio Jones has been unable to play.

In games where Julio has either missed or played less than half of the snaps, Ridley has a 46% share of the air yards, which would be the highest in the league over the course of the season. Ridley has over 100 yards or a touchdown in four straight games, and his team will need him this week.

The Falcons play the Chiefs in the highest total game on the main slate. Atlanta has not been successful at running the ball all season, ranking 28th in schedule-adjusted rushing offense, according to numberFire's metrics. This has forced them to go pass-heavy, ranking ninth in pass/run ratio. Being 10.5-point underdogs, the passing attack will likely have to be the focus of the Falcons' offense, which could be great for Ridley. While the Chiefs have been relatively good against the pass this season, they don't have a cornerback who can shut down Ridley, and the target volume should negate any matchup concerns.

Ridley is second in the wide receiver projections this week. He makes for a great tournament play, especially in lineups with Mahmoes and a pass-catching Chief. That would be a nice game stack in a matchup that should see a lot of points scored.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $8,800
Projected Points: 15.6

Arguably the only true tight end stud this season, Travis Kelce has continued to dominate.

He leads the second-best tight end, Darren Waller, in half-PPR points by nearly four per game. It's almost unfair to compare him to other tight ends because his numbers are close to the best among wide receivers. He is second behind DeAndre Hopkins in receiving this season by only six yards. He is also fourth in targets, so the lack of volume that plagues other tight ends doesn't apply to him.

This week, he's in a great position again. With this Chiefs-Falcons game being one we want to target, Kelce is a perfect way to do that. The Falcons are the fifth-worst defense against tight ends this season from a fantasy perspective. Two of the defenses worse than them are there, at least partially, because Kelce torched them already this season. He had 109 yards and a touchdown against the Jets and 65 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Buffalo Bills, and he could easily do something similar in this matchup.

With at least eight catches in seven straight games, Kelce's floor is safe in any game, and especially in one that's supposed to be high scoring like this one.

Kelce is lapping the field in our tight end projections this week. He is projected for a whopping five points more than any other player at the position. You can pair him with Mahomes and get Ridley in there too if you can find enough value, and that would make for an elite game stack for this slate.

Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.