NFL Draft Betting: Breaking Down 7 Draft Position Over/Unders
The NFL Draft is mere weeks away, and there are a whole host of markets available over at FanDuel Sportsbook if you fancy a flutter on the event.
One recent addition is draft position over/unders for seven players. Let's take look at all the options on offer in an effort to steer you toward potential betting values in this particular market.
Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Line: 11.5 | Pick: Over (+116)
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Devonta Smith had a historic 2020 campaign, but it hasn't been enough to ensure his standing as the top wideout in this draft class. While his college production cannot be overlooked, his outlier nature in terms of size -- particularly his weight -- and the unanswered questions regarding his athleticism (because he opted out of drills at Alabama's pro day) could see him fall a bit in the first round. He shapes up as a wild card of sorts.
I lean toward taking the over at +116, but it’s not a bet I’d be thrilled to take on.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Line: 5.5 | Pick: Over (+118)
With the first three selections likely being quarterbacks, this line depends almost entirely, I think, on the actions and attitudes of the Atlanta Falcons, who are sitting fourth overall. The Falcons could trade away this pick to a team that will likely choose a passer, take an offensive lineman, or invest in Matt Ryan's eventual successor. Or, of course, they could take Kyle Pitts.
Atlanta drafting Pitts fourth overall would make him the highest-drafted tight end in the era of the modern draft, beating the previous best of fifth overall set by Riley Odoms in 1972.
If Pitts doesn't go fourth, then this line comes down to the Cincinnati Bengals, the owners of the fifth pick. Much like Atlanta, Cincy will have several paths they can take, but if the Bengals make this pick (instead of trading back), offensive line would make a lot of sense with Joe Burrow coming off a serious knee injury.
That pushes me to over 5.5 on Pitts, and we can get it at plus odds (+118).
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Line: 3.5 | Pick: Under (-300)
In all likelihood, the San Francisco 49ers traded up to the third spot to take a quarterback. I think that is pretty established. The identity of the quarterback is not yet known to the wider public, of course, but the odds suggest that the pick will be Mac Jones -- despite Jones' iffy draft profile.
Sources such as the venerable Adam Schefter believe Jones will be the pick, and noted NFL insiders such as Daniel Jeremiah and Mike Tannenbaum both have Jones going to the 49ers at three in their latest mock drafts.
All signs point to Jones being taken third overall, but the price on the under has ballooned to -300.
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Line: 4.5 | Pick: Under (-106)
Justin Fields could be in play for the 49ers at number three, but with the weight of opinion suggesting San Fran will be picking Jones, the draft for Fields likely begins at the fourth overall pick.
As with Kyle Pitts, Fields' future is tied up in what the Falcons do. Fields will likely need a team to trade up to get him if he's off the board under this line of 4.5, although it's not crazy to think that Atlanta could choose Fields and let him learn under Matt Ryan.
The betting odds are priced fairly evenly at -116 on the over and -106 on the under. A consensus of mock drafts completed within the week actually pit Fields third to the 49ers most frequently, contrasting with the Jones rumors. Where Fields goes is one of the most intriguing -- and hardest-to-predict -- storylines early in the draft.
I slightly lean toward the under. But trying to predict the Falcons' moves with a new GM and coaching staff is a tricky prospect.
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Line: 7.5 | Pick: Over (+172)
Trey Lance comes into the draft process with question marks surrounding his level of competition as well as his limited production. Those concerns preclude him from being seen as a truly elite member of this quarterback class. It also makes the over an enticing wager, although we should be wary of the -215 price on the under.
With it being unlikely that one of the Bengals, Miami Dolphins or Detroit Lions -- who are picking fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively -- take a quarterback, for the under to hit here, Lance probably needs a team to make a trade up to come get him. I don't think that happens, but oddsmakers obviously feel differently.
Even if four quarterbacks go off the board in the first four picks, teams in need of a quarterback may feel like they can roll the dice and try to let Lance fall to them. I’m specifically referencing the Denver Broncos at number nine and the Carolina Panthers at number eight, the latter of whom could now be (somewhat) satisfied with Sam Darnold. Denver makes perfect sense as a landing spot for Lance, but the Broncos may feel like they can get him where they are at ninth.
I like the over here, and I feel good about the value, especially since you can get great bang for your buck if it hits.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Line: 6.5 | Pick: Over (+132)
All things appearing equal, this is a fantastic line for Ja'Marr Chase. The Dolphins originally had the 3rd pick, then traded down to 12th and back up to 6th. When they moved back up -- which happened on the same day as their deal to move back from number three -- Miami likely had its eye on one player. Just who that player is -- that's the big question.
Miami has two glaring needs: the need to surround second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with weapons and to get offensive line help. They should be able to address one of those holes with this pick, and the Dolphins' need for playmakers should put Chase firmly in their crosshairs.
Of course, with potential movement as teams seek to secure a quarterback, there is a chance that the sixth pick is not made by the Dolphins. If a team other than Miami is making this pick, I think it unlikely the other team winds up taking Chase. That makes the over an attractive proposition.
The over is priced at +132 while the under is -162. I can see this going either way, but I lean toward the over.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Line: 11.5 | Pick: Under (-122)
The third of the big three wide receivers is Jaylen Waddle. Of the trio, he presents the widest range of possible outcomes as far as draft position goes
From a production standpoint, he can’t hang with either Chase or Smith. You would assume that would push him down draft boards. But he possesses a trait that neither Smith nor Chase can match: speed.
When picking between wideouts, NFL teams seem to go for the fastest guy, and it is for this very reason that it wouldn't be all that wild if Waddle ends up being the first wide receiver taken. The first wideout will likely come off the board somewhere between 6th and 11th, and all three of Smith, Chase, and Waddle could be selected in that range.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the under at -122 and the over at +100. I lean ever so slightly toward the under, but I say that with almost no conviction.