Mac Jones Can Succeed With the Patriots Despite His Shortcomings
Mac Jones had a pretty wild day.
At the start of Thursday, Jones was the betting favorite to go third overall -- with FanDuel Sportsbook listing him at -270 to be the number-three pick as of Thursday morning -- but he ended up sliding the 15th, where he fell into the welcoming arms of the New England Patriots.
Jones' profile features some pros and cons (as they all do). The biggest positive is the elite season he had in 2020 in which he put up a clip of 12.8 adjusted yards per attempt, the fourth-best mark among first-round quarterbacks since 2000. The key negative is a lack of games in his career, with Jones getting only 19 games at Alabama.
What should we expect from Jones with the Pats?
Player Comparisons
numberFire's JJ Zachariason and Jim Sannes break down Jones' profile, and Jim gives his top comparison.
"To me, Mac Jones has some similar red flags to Dwayne Haskins coming out."@JimSannes on why Jones could be a risky pick for the Patriots at No. 15 #GoPats | #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/j8Nxt4SCE6
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) April 30, 2021
Brandon Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Jones. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.
| Mac Jones Profile Comparisons | Similarity |
|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 88.5% |
| Brandon Weeden | 86.7% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 83.4% |
| Rex Grossman | 83.4% |
| Sam Bradford | 82.1% |
| Josh Rosen | 80.8% |
| Matt Leinart | 80.8% |
| Kyle Trask | 80.6% |
| Byron Leftwich | 79.7% |
| Mark Sanchez | 79.5% |
Gdula's Take: Despite 99th-percentile passing efficiency in college, Jones' comps aren't necessarily eye-popping. He's bogged down by his age-adjusted experience.
Jones' 2021 Fantasy Football Projection
Jones will enter into a battle with Cam Newton for the Patriots' starting job, and while Jones may win in the long run, he's likely an underdog to open the year under center.
As such, Zachariason's initial rookie-season projections for Jones include just 1,199 passing yards and 7.2 touchdowns, making him the QB36 for the season.
The Pats revamped their pass-catching corps this offseason, bringing in Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Jonnu Smith, so while New England still lacks some playmakers on the perimeter, their weapons are much better than what they had in 2020.
New England is listed at +3100 to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel Sportsbook and +390 to finish first in the NFC East, and they have a win total projection of 9.5 (with -143 on the under) on FOX Bet.
