Jaylen Waddle to the Dolphins: What Kind of Numbers Will Waddle Produce?
The Miami Dolphins took wideout Jaylen Waddle sixth overall, pairing Waddle with former Alabama teammate Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins' signal caller.
Waddle was a big-play weapon in college, averaging 18.9 yards per grab for his career, including 21.1 per catch in 2020, which ranks in the 96th percentile, according to PlayerProfiler. He leads all wideouts in this class in yards per route run, per PFF.
But Waddle lacks standout metrics elsewhere because injuries shortened his college career. Going by PlayerProfiler's numbers, he sports a 32nd percentile college dominator rating, 20th percentile breakout age and 9th percentile college target share.
What will Waddle bring to Miami?
Player Comparisons
numberFire's JJ Zachariason and Jim Sannes break down Waddle's profile, and JJ gives his top comparison.
A mix of Henry Ruggs and Tyreek Hill?@LateRoundQB explains why brand new Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle is one of the best receivers in this class #FinsUp | #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/XUk2SjvKfu
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) April 30, 2021
Brandon Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Waddle. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.
| Jaylen Waddle Profile Comparisons | Similarity |
|---|---|
| Donnie Avery | 88.5% |
| Diontae Johnson | 88.2% |
| Marquise Brown | 86.6% |
| Santonio Holmes | 86.6% |
| Phillip Dorsett | 86.1% |
| Ryan Broyles | 86.0% |
| John Brown | 85.3% |
| Sterling Shepard | 85.0% |
| Percy Harvin | 84.6% |
| Jarius Wright | 84.5% |
Gdula's Take: Waddle's comparisons range pretty widely. He had a late breakout age and a low overall market share (understandable at Alabama). We should probably anticipate that he hits closer to the Diontae Johnson and John Brown results in the NFL.
Waddle's 2021 Fantasy Football Projection
Zachariason's initial projections for Waddle include 55 catches, 760 yards and 4.7 scores across 17 games, making him the PPR WR53 for the season.
Waddle joins a receiver depth chart that already contains DeVante Parker and Will Fuller, and tight end Mike Gesicki has shown well early in his career.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Dolphins are listed at +3000 to win the Super Bowl and +320 to take the AFC East, and they have a win total projection of 8.5 -- with -150 on the under -- on FOX Bet.
