FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 1 Sunday Night (Bears at Rams)

On NFL odds, the Los Angeles Rams are 7.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bears in a game with a 46.5-point total. That makes the implied score 27.00-19.50. Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public is all over LA, with 69% of spread bets coming in on the Rams side and 84% of moneyline bets doing the same.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Matthew Stafford, Rams ($16,000)

Matthew Stafford is the clear top MVP play on the slate. That doesn't mean he's 100% going to be the top scorer -- single-game slates can be funky -- but he's got a projection 4.4 points more than anyone else's, per our model. Unfortunately, he's salaried like the clear best option, with a tag $2,500 above the pack.

It's going to be fascinating seeing how Stafford plays in Sean McVay's attack. The matchup is a difficult one as Chicago gave up the 11th-fewest points per game (18.0) to signal-callers in 2020. Stafford, though, played very well against this Bears D last year, going for 402 passing yards and 4 tuds and 297 yards and 1 score in two matchups.

With a much better supporting cast around him in every single way (coaching and players), Stafford could start his Rams tenure with a bang. But using him at MVP means swallowing a lot of chalk, so I'll likely look elsewhere.

Cooper Kupp, Rams ($11,000)

Of the Rams' wideouts, Cooper Kupp has the far better matchup. Per PlayerProfiler, Kupp will see Duke Shelley (-3.1 coverage rating) while Robert Woods ($12,000) gets Jaylon Johnson (36.5 rating). That pushes me to Kupp.

In 2020, Kupp (23.6%) and Woods (23.0%) had nearly identical target shares while Woods' 88.8% snap rate was 9.7 percentage points higher than Kupp's. Our projections have Woods at 12.2 FanDuel points and Kupp at 11.6.

If you prefer Woods, go for it. It's a bit of a guessing game with us having no data of Stafford in this offense. I like either Rams receiver as a leverage MVP play.

David Montgomery, Bears ($13,000)

It's hard to get excited about anyone in the Bears' offense in this matchup. The Rams' D was excellent last year, and we expect much of the same this season, slotting them first in our projections. With Andy Dalton ($13,500) at the helm and Jalen Ramsey set to take on Allen Robinson ($11,500), Montgomery has the best outlook.

Montgomery should get volume with Tarik Cohen out. We forecast him for slightly more than 20 total touches, and that's plenty valuable. But the matchup isn't fun. LA permitted the fifth-fewest FanDuel points per game (17.4) to backs last season.

Our algorithm projects Montgomery for 14.1 FanDuel points, the second-most on the slate and 0.1 more than Dalton. Montgomery is a viable MVP target, and he probably won't be a super popular multiplier pick.

Flex Priorities

Darrell Henderson, Rams ($12,500)

Darrell Henderson appears primed for the Rams' lead-back role with Sony Michel ($9,500) not having much time to get up to speed with the Rams' offense.

With that said, Henderson is our model's worst point-per-dollar play among anyone at a salary of at least $10,000 (if you don't count Justin Fields). The Bears' D allowed the ninth-fewest FanDuel points per game (18.6) to running backs, and we project them as the seventh-best run defense heading into the campaign.

Much like we said with Montgomery -- volume is volume. Henderson's projection of 16 total touches is solid enough, and he's may not be as popular as Stafford and the pieces of LA's passing game.

Darrell Mooney, Bears ($10,000)

Darnell Mooney generated some buzz this preseason, and he shouldn't see much of Ramsey. That's good. PlayerProfiler projects him to face off with David Long Jr., whose coverage rating of -16.1 from 2020 is pretty ugly, although Long didn't actually play much (8.4% snap rate).

Ideally, Mooney would be a little lower in salary, but if you're expecting the Bears to be trailing, Mooney is my second-favorite run-it-back piece after Montgomery.

Tyler Higbee, Rams ($8,500)

My favorite flex play on this slate is Tyler Higbee. With Gerald Everett gone, Higbee could get more run in 2021, and the matchup is there for him in Week 1. Chicago surrendered the second-most FanDuel points per game (13.0) to tight ends a campaign ago.

We rank Higbee as the best point-per-dollar play among those with a four-digit salary. I'll be overweight on him.

Value/Differentiators

DeSean Jackson, Rams ($7,000)

I'm a sucker for big-play dudes on single-game slates. DeSean Jackson fits that mold.

I have no idea how much he'll be out there. The Rams' official depth chart -- which might be meaningless (Ronald Jones was listed as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' top running back on their depth chart going into Thursday night's clash) -- has DJax and Van Jefferson ($7,500) sharing LA's WR3 spot.

We project Jefferson for 7.0 points and Jackson for 6.2. I like the idea of rolling the dice on one of them, and I'll usually land on Jackson in the hopes of him hitting on a couple of chunk plays.

Sony Michel, Rams ($9,500)

It remains to be seen how much Michel will play after being acquired by the Rams in late August. McVay said Michel was on track to play, so the running back should be out there some.

Using him is a shot in the dark unless we get some reports pregame that say Michel will log a healthy amount of snaps. But maybe he punches one in. We project him to have 0.35 rushing scores, compared to Henderson's 0.54. I'm not sure I'll use Michel, but I'm somewhat intrigued by the chance to get a low-rostered tuddie.