NFL

4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 1

Stacks fuel upside in FanDuel contests. To that point, colleague Brandon Gdula took a deep dive into hit rates and correlation for stacks. It's worth a read.

Every week, I'll lay out my four favorite stacks in this space. Here are the stacks I'm honing in on this week.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson ($7,800), Tyler Lockett ($6,800), and Gerald Everett ($4,800)

This is the only three-player stack I'm writing up this week. The Seattle Seahawks are tied for the sixth-highest implied total of the week at 25.75 points, and that's a nifty starting point.

Further, Seattle's offense is one with narrowly focused usage in the passing game. Essentially, it was the D.K. Metcalf and Lockett show last year. Picking the correct receiver is key. I'm planting my flag on Lockett Island this week because of the defense he's facing.

Specifically, he'll see two-high zone coverage from the Indianapolis Colts. I'm not going to pretend to be a tape grinder and expert on defenses. Rather, I'm following the numbers. According to Hayden Winks, Lockett tallied better numbers against two-high zone coverages than Metcalf did. In addition, Winks notes Lockett's 410 yards in the split were the second-highest in the NFL.

Everett's another player who can benefit from facing this coverage, and he can do damage after the catch. According to Sports Info Solutions, Everett's 6.0 yards after the catch per reception in 2020 tied for the ninth-highest mark among wideouts and tight ends who were targeted at least 60 times.

This passing game should theoretically get a lift from new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. He's reportedly receiving free reign to run a quicker-hitting offense that plays at an up-tempo pace. If you wait to see it in action and then react, you're losing an edge over the field. This stack allows us to speculate and get ahead of the masses.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen ($8,100) and Stefon Diggs ($7,900)

Here we have the 2020 NFL MVP Award runner-up, Allen, and the leader in targets (166), receptions (127), and receiving yards (1,535), Diggs. In their first year together, things couldn't have gone much better for these two.

Beyond the surface stats, the advanced metrics were tantalizing. Allen earned Pro Football Focus's fifth-highest passing grade, and he was tied for fourth among quarterbacks in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back (0.28). Meanwhile, Diggs ranked eighth out of the 62 receivers who were targeted at least 75 times with 0.56 Target NEP per target. He also shined in yards per route run, ranking fifth (2.51 Y/RR).

Given the success of these two studs, it should come as little surprise the Buffalo Bills were one of the most pass-happy offenses. According to Sharp Football Stats, with an offensive margin ranging from trailing by seven to leading by seven, the Bills passed at the third-highest rate (63 percent). It gets better, though. They dialed up their pass rate under those scoring conditions to 68 percent from Week 9 through Week 17. Further, they were aggressive when they played the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14 and never stopped attacking through the air, despite the Steelers ranking first in pass D, per our schedule-adjusted numbers.

Diggs really excelled against the Steelers. He undressed their secondary en route to 10 receptions for 130 yards and 1 touchdown on 14 targets. Buffalo sports a robust implied total of 27.50 points, which is the third-highest mark this week. Finally, I haven't even brought up Allen's rushing ability. Both players have weekly ceilings of leading their position in scoring, and they're a superb stacking selection on Sunday.

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill ($7,700) and A.J. Brown ($7,800)

Let me start by saying -- you want exposure to the Arizona Cardinals-Tennessee Titans clash. The game's spread is only 3.0 points, favoring the host Titans, and the total is a tasty 53.5, leaving the Titans with the second-highest implied total of 28.25.

This game projects to be a shootout played at a breakneck pace. Further, there should be plays aplenty, creating more scoring opportunities. Circling back to the pace, the Cardinals played at the second-fastest pace when the scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points. And the Titans were directly behind them in third.

Tennessee's offense has run through bowling-ball back Derrick Henry the last couple of years. However, Tannehill and Brown have been highly efficient. Last year, Tannehill ranked third in Passing NEP per drop back, and Brown ranked second in Target NEP per target. The former also ranked fourth among qualified passers in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.90 ANY/A), per Pro Football Reference. The latter ranked tied for eighth in yards per target (10.1 Y/Tgt) among qualified pass-catchers, and he checked in third in yards per route run (2.58) among receivers who logged a minimum of 75 targets.

Now, what happens if the new offensive coordinator Todd Downing takes a little work off of Henry's plate in favor of hucking the pigskin more? The sky is the limit. Tannehill and Brown have already demonstrated the ability to pile up fantasy points in a run-first offense. However, I'm willing to chase more potential before we see how Downing runs the attack. Finally, I suggest running it back the other way with DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200), Rondale Moore ($4,900), or A.J. Green ($5,400).

New York Jets

Zach Wilson ($6,500) and Corey Davis ($5,800)

The combo of Wilson and Davis barely put a dent in your salary cap. Out of the chute, that's a selling point for using them. Being able to put out a lineup loaded with superstars and a stack is extremely appealing. Of course, I expect some degree of production from this stack.

The New York Jets selected Wilson with the second pick in this year's NFL Draft. Thus far, he's making a good impression. In the preseason, Wilson earned Pro Football Focus' sixth-highest passing grade. He's also a well-regarded prospect with a huge arm and mobility, even if he's not going to be confused for a dual-threat quarterback. As recently as last year, we watched Justin Herbert utilize a similar profile to hit the ground running.

It's possible Davis won't be Wilson's top option all year. However, the early results indicate Davis is the top dog in the passing attack. Additionally, Davis is coming off a breakout 2020 campaign. Therefore, Davis is one of my favorite low-salary plays this week. Rather than rehash why I love him, I suggest you check out the value plays piece I penned.

In the intro, I mentioned that this stack gives you the ability to roster studs around them. The obvious target is Christian McCaffrey ($10,400). Thankfully, he doubles as a game-stack option. Both defenses are suspect at best and downright bad at worst. Yhere's a chance this game exceeds the expectations accompanying a ho-hum total of 45.5 points.



Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.