NFL

Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report Through Week 1

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams, but you'll often find some flawed ways of analyzing such data.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that.

That's why I'm presenting both pace (seconds per play) and pass rate while looking only at plays on which a team's pre-snap win probability (as designated by nflfastR's live win models) was between 20% and 80%.

Here are the results through Week 1.

Passes and Rushes
When Win Probability
Is 20-80%
Seconds/
Play
Rank Pass
Rate
Rank
ATL 25.4 1 48.8% 28
LA 25.7 2 75.0% 3
PHI 27.9 3 64.9% 15
NE 28.1 4 57.1% 21
MIN 28.1 5 71.2% 5
WAS 28.2 6 44.9% 30
HOU 28.3 7 57.7% 20
SEA 28.5 8 46.2% 29
MIA 28.7 9 59.2% 19
CAR 29.0 10 68.0% 8
DAL 29.0 11 77.6% 2
LAC 29.3 12 68.1% 7
SF 29.3 13 42.1% 31
BUF 29.6 14 67.9% 9
NO 30.1 15 40.0% 32
CHI 30.3 16 60.0% 18
JAX 30.5 17 64.7% 16
TB 30.6 18 80.0% 1
CLE 30.8 19 49.1% 26
KC 30.8 20 66.7% 11
ARI 30.9 21 72.7% 4
CIN 30.9 22 49.0% 27
LV 31.1 23 70.6% 6
DET 31.1 24 54.3% 22
BAL 31.8 25 51.6% 23
IND 32.2 26 50.0% 24
TEN 32.3 27 50.0% 24
PIT 32.4 28 65.9% 13
NYJ 33.0 29 64.3% 17
NYG 33.1 30 65.5% 14
DEN 34.3 31 67.3% 10
GB 34.9 32 66.7% 11

Week 2 Lookahead

Here's a look at next week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate. The table is sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

GameHome
Pace
Away
Pace
Avg.
Pace
Pace
Rank
Home
Pass%
Away
Pass%
Avg.
Pass%
Pass%
Rank
ATL@TB30.625.428.0180.0%48.8%64.4%5
SF@PHI27.929.328.6264.9%42.1%53.5%14
LA@IND32.225.728.9350.0%75.0%62.5%7
DAL@LAC29.329.029.1468.1%77.6%72.9%1
BUF@MIA28.729.629.2559.2%67.9%63.5%6
NO@CAR29.030.129.5668.0%40.0%54.0%13
MIN@ARI30.928.129.5772.7%71.2%71.9%2
HOU@CLE30.828.329.6849.1%57.7%53.4%15
TEN@SEA28.532.330.4946.2%50.0%48.1%16
NE@NYJ33.028.130.51064.3%57.1%60.7%8
CIN@CHI30.330.930.61160.0%49.0%54.5%12
NYG@WSH28.233.130.71244.9%65.5%55.2%11
KC@BAL31.830.831.31351.6%66.7%59.1%10
LV@PIT32.431.131.81465.9%70.6%68.2%3
DEN@JAC30.534.332.41564.7%67.3%66.0%4
DET@GB34.931.133.01666.7%54.3%60.5%9